Without pretending to detract from the honorable result achieved by former ambassador Nikki Haley in the primary elections of New Hampshire, it seems clear that Donald Trump has all the numbers to win the Republican presidential nomination for the third consecutive time.
A victory for Haley in the primaries of the state where she was governor, South Carolina, would extend her campaign by a few days, but everything seems to indicate that the so-called Super Tuesday, the set of primaries and caucuses that will be held on the 5 of March, will give the former president the opportunity to challenge the current incumbent, Joe Biden, for the White House again.
No surprises are expected from the Democratic side either. His advanced age suggested in 2020 that Biden would be a one-term president, but he has finally embraced the tradition of the last half century by which every president aspires to the re-election to which he is constitutionally entitled. You have to go back to the tumultuous March of 1968, in the midst of the Vietnam War, to find a president, Lyndon Johnson, who refused to run again. Subsequent presidents have all tried, some successfully (Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George Bush Jr., Barack Obama) and others not (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George Bush Sr., and Donald Trump).
In any case, the experience of this call is totally atypical, with a former president who won the 2016 elections in a good democratic fight, despite the fact that his rival took three million popular votes from him, and who irrevocably lost the 2020 elections, despite the fact that – and here comes the anomaly – he not only refused to admit his defeat, but also persuaded some of his compatriots, against all proof or evidence, that those elections had been fraudulent.
Meanwhile, before, during and after his presidency, Trump has amassed an admittedly impressive criminal record, with nearly a hundred indictments and increasingly frequent visits to the courts. This is also unprecedented, and for his detractors this is proof that we are dealing with a serial criminal, while for his supporters it seems, on the contrary, to show that he is a victim of the system. So far, in effect, it has felt as if each Trump judicial parade increased his popularity in the opinion polls and increased the funds to finance his campaign.
The question is whether it will continue to be so throughout the nine interminable months that remain before the presidential elections, scheduled for November 5.
President Biden’s agenda will be dominated by certainly troubling events, such as, among many others, ongoing and emerging international conflicts, the impact of the climate emergency, the challenge and eventual regulation of intelligence artificial intelligence, the evolution of unemployment, inflation and interest rates or public insecurity, all this with the background of his advanced age and the incessant struggle with Congress, which in an election year can achieve easily a paralysis of Government action.
But what are we to say about Trump’s criminal agenda? Accounting fraud, sexual abuse, defamation, bribery, abuse of power, obstruction of justice, violations of national security due to misappropriation and illegal retention of official documents, attacks against electoral regulations, insurrection and sedition due to encouragement to the invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the list is endless. Even if the New York tycoon predictably appeals all eventual convictions all the way to the Supreme Court, the potential wear and tear seems obvious. And, with the nomination secured, he will no longer be balanced by eventual electoral triumphs in a prematurely concluded primary campaign.
Of course, there are still undeniable points of interest, such as the summer national conventions that will be held in Milwaukee (Republican) and Chicago (Democrat), who will be the candidates for the vice presidency – especially the one Trump chooses – and, of course, the traditional fall televised face-to-face debates. But it seems to us that the process can be very long for both candidates and for everyone.
