“The risk of war is not imminent, but it is not impossible,” warned the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in February. Days before, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz assured that “the risk from Russia is real.” And in the pages of La Vanguardia, the Spanish Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, defended in March that the threat of war was “total and absolute.” Two years after the war in Ukraine and with the Middle East set ablaze by Israel’s war in Gaza and the threat of a regional outbreak, European leaders have buried the taboo of the threat of war. Not only do they speak clearly of “war”, but they have increased military spending to “unprecedented” levels, according to the report published annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
Global military spending reached $2,443,000 million in 2023, a figure 6.8% higher than in 2022 and the largest increase from one year to the next since 2009. Since the prestigious institute began to prepare In its annual report, in 1988, the world had never invested so much in weapons. “States are prioritizing military force, but they risk a spiral of action-reaction in an increasingly volatile geopolitical and security scenario,” warns Nan Tian, ??senior researcher at Sipri.
The main conflict that encouraged military spending in 2023 was the war in Ukraine, not only between its direct contenders, but also in Europe and among NATO partners. Military spending in Russia rose 24% compared to the previous year, reaching 109 billion dollars – 57% more than in 2014, the year of the annexation of Crimea – which means 16% of the total spending of the Government (the highest level since the dissolution of the USSR) and represents 5.9% of GDP.
In Ukraine, military spending represented 37% of its GDP (the highest figure in the world) and accounted for no less than 58% of government spending, which is leading the country to become increasingly dependent on foreign assistance. to cover the rest of the non-military needs, warns Sipri.
In 2023, Ukrainian investment in Defense increased by 51%, to $64.8 billion, which is 1,272% more than in 2014. However, to this we must add the military aid received by more than 30 countries , especially the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. Kyiv received at least $35 billion in military aid in 2023, most of it coming from Washington, despite Republican obstacles, so total Ukrainian military spending would be equivalent to 91% of Russian spending.
The US and NATO continue to be the biggest spenders (55% of the total), but the arms frenzy was especially relevant among the European allies due to the “threat perception” from Moscow. “For European NATO states, the last two years of war in Ukraine have profoundly changed their perspective on security,” explains Lorenzo Scarazzato, researcher at Sipri.
Military spending in Europe reached $588 billion in 2023, 16% more than the previous year, with the United Kingdom leading the way. A clear example of the paradigm shift experienced in European foreign ministries since the beginning of the Russian invasion would be Poland, whose military spending increased by 75% in one year. By far the largest annual increase on the entire continent. Finland, which in 2023 became the 31st member of NATO after the shift in its foreign policy triggered by the Ukrainian war, increased its military spending by 54%.
In the Middle East, war and tensions have fueled the biggest increase in military spending in a decade. In Israel, it grew by 24%, mainly due to the offensive on Gaza following the Hamas attacks on October 7. Because the war began almost at the end of the year, it is significant to look at monthly spending. If the average before October was 1.8 billion dollars per month, in December it shot up to 4.7 billion. For its part, growth in Iran, Israel’s main rival in the region, was “marginal,” according to Sipri.
On the other hand, the increase in military spending in China (which has not stopped in the last 29 years) “has led countries like Japan or Taiwan to increase their military capabilities, a trend that will accelerate in the coming years,” says Xiao Liang. , from Sipri. However, the report also indicates that Beijing’s spending growth has slowed over the past ten years, hand in hand with slower growth in its economy.
The report also highlights increased spending in Central America and the Caribbean due to the increasing use of military force against criminal gangs as “governments are unable to address the problem using conventional means or because they prefer immediate and often more violent responses.” ”, concludes researcher Diego Lopes da Silva.
