US President Joe Biden has run out of middle options to stop Iran’s military expansion.
Since October 7, its armed forces have suffered more than 160 attacks in the Middle East. The deadliest was on Sunday: three soldiers dead and more than forty wounded at Tower 22, a remote base on the border between Iraq, Jordan and Syria.
On Tuesday, Biden announced that he had already decided on the response to this attack. However, none of the actions he has taken against Iran and its allies have worked. Despite economic sanctions and airstrikes, the Houthis continue to impose their law in the Red Sea, while pro-Iran armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria have maintained their offensive capacity.
Yesterday, Hosein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guards, assured that Iran “does not want a war” with the United States. At the same time, Kataib Hizbullah, the pro-Iranian militia in Iraq that most likely launched the drone that hit Tower 22 on Sunday, announced that it is suspending military operations against Israel and the United States.
After having tightened the rope to the maximum, Iran lowers its sails because it knows that the only effective response left to Biden is a direct attack.
The Pentagon has the list of objectives well studied because Iran has been a direct rival since 1979.
Fifteen years ago, with the help of Israel, it launched a cyberattack against the nuclear program that delayed the development of the atomic bomb by a couple of years.
In 2015, it was about to launch another one against the anti-aircraft defenses, communications systems and the electrical grid, but it was aborted because Iran then signed the nuclear agreement, that is, the commitment to renounce the bomb, now completely ruled out.
Biden has made the decision to punish Iran and its allies, but has also said that “I don’t think we need a bigger war in the Middle East.” In this election year he does not want to run the risk of a military fiasco.
The US and the EU cannot apply further economic sanctions either. Those that are in force affect all sectors of the economy, as well as the elite of a regime that, however, always finds a way to avoid them. China, for example, continues to buy oil.
Iran does not want to be the target of a direct attack by the United States. He is very comfortable directing the Axis of Resistance, that is, the Islamist and jihadist militias that pressure Israel and the United States throughout the region. You don’t pay any price.
That is why he immediately distanced himself from the drone that fell on Tower 22 and, together with Iraq, managed to get Kataib Hizbulah, the strongest of the pro-Iranian militias, to announce a ceasefire yesterday.
The Islamic Republic knows that a direct confrontation with the United States will inflame the Middle East. The Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, with which it restored relations last year, will not come to its defense. Likewise, strong internal dissidence would find new strength to oppose an oppressive regime that imprisons, tortures and murders women who do not wear veils and is unable to reverse the economic crisis.
Biden could exploit this weakness, but the risk is enormous. Israel, which has not yet defeated Hamas in Gaza, should face an even greater challenge, that of Hizbullah in Lebanon. Common sense dictates prudence and tactics that, without attracting attention, hasten the end of the ayatollahs.
