At Junts they are quite fond of mythomania with the commemorative dates of the process. October 1st tops the ranking of the most celebrated. There are many more, but three could be highlighted that, although not remembered by the independence movement, also mark the political performance of Carles Puigdemont:
The first, on October 29, 2017, when he fled by car towards Belgium. The second, on January 30, 2018, when ERC prevented Puigdemont from being sworn in remotely as president of the Generalitat. That decision marked a turning point in relations between the Republicans and Waterloo. And the third, on July 5, 2023, when Puigdemont suffered a double defeat in European justice regarding his immunity as a European parliamentarian and which brings closer a possible extradition.
These three dates mark the journey of the former president, who has tried to give political content to what he considers his exile in Belgium. First, there was an attempt to put the Spanish State on the ropes by conditioning Catalan politics with the attempted investiture. Later, he wanted the European courts to discredit the Spanish judges. These two avenues had been declining, until everything changed with the general elections, when Puigdemont, who had already given up even leading his party, found himself with the gift of seven decisive votes in the Congress of Deputies and decided to use them. .
The question is what Junts wants to do with that key: what door to open, with what objectives and who manages that power. For now, it has served to allow the investiture of Pedro Sánchez in exchange for an amnesty and a negotiation table on the possibilities of an independence referendum and on the expansion of Catalan self-government and its financing. The procedures are set only by Puigdemont, who is the one who decided last Tuesday to vote no to the amnesty law due to the PSOE’s refusal to introduce changes. (By the way, in the independence movement they remember that he coincided on January 30, as the one in which he was not inaugurated).
The political practice of Junts and ERC is heir to the process, marked by negotiations resolved in extremis, with sometimes eccentric and supposedly clever solutions. But the Republicans have been shedding these habits and have consolidated a shift towards pragmatism under the premise that independence can only be addressed with greater electoral support and political negotiation. ERC, like Bildu, tries to follow the path of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, which today is reaping the fruits of its strategy.
Junts’ turnaround, on the other hand, has been unexpected and abrupt, following the result of the general elections. And to justify it, Puigdemont has imposed a harsher way of negotiating, with declarative rudeness, which marks distances with the Republicans, whom he identifies as weak-minded compared to the PSOE. In this context, Tuesday’s no to the amnesty law is inscribed, along with a sincere concern that some judges are preventing its effective application.
But Junts is as trapped as the PSOE. In April, pro-independence leaders will sit on the bench for 1-O. And many more are crossing their fingers that the law sees the light. How to explain to them that it is not approved? How can the party justify that the opportunity to condition a Spanish legislature is lost? Puigdemont would not mind agreeing with the PP. He probably prefers it. But no one can guarantee that after another election he will retain the key to governability. Without an amnesty law, the former president has few tricks left to play from Belgium and give political value to his “exile.” Without an amnesty law, Junts would enter an uncertain phase. On the contrary, in these first stages of negotiation, the post-convergents have already tasted the honey of their influence and have perceived greater mobilization of their voters in the polls.
Likewise, Sánchez needs to redirect the relationship with Junts if he wants to complete a term. The president has proposed to continue even if Puigdemont rejects the law and the budgets. But at the same time he is pouring all the coal into the boiler to avoid it. Despite the efforts of his Minister of Justice, Félix Bolaños, to reconcile with the Judiciary, the president is considering legal changes to limit the instruction time of judges and thus convince Puigdemont, concerned about the movements of Judge Manuel García-Castellón , which is looking for evidence against him and other independence leaders to accuse them of terrorism.
The amnesty law is the battering ram with which the opposition tries to wear down Sánchez, but paradoxically its success is also the only way for the president to turn the situation around, since it not only guarantees Junts support for a section of the legislature, but is the apex of Sánchez’s speech in Spain about political normalization in Catalonia and which would be completed if Salvador Illa achieved an electoral victory.
Sánchez assured yesterday that his government still has 1,260 days left. For this to be the case, he will have to convince Puigdemont that it is the best way to make sense of the 2,288 nights that have passed since October 29, 2017.
