Together they are quite fond of mythomania with the commemorative dates of the process. October 1 tops the ranking of the most celebrated. There are many more, but three could be reviewed that, although not remembered for independence, also mark the political action of Carles Puigdemont:
The first, on October 29, 2017, when he fled by car in the direction of Belgium. The second, on January 30, 2018, when ERC prevented Puigdemont from being invested remotely as president of the Generalitat. That decision marked a turning point in relations between the Republicans and Waterloo. And the third, on July 5, 2023, when Puigdemont suffered a double defeat in the European justice system regarding his immunity as a member of the European Parliament and which facilitates a possible extradition.
These three dates mark the journey of the former president, who has tried to give political content to what he considers his exile in Belgium. First it was tried to put the Spanish State against the ropes by conditioning Catalan politics with the investiture attempt. Afterwards, they wanted the European courts to leave the Spanish judges in evidence. These two paths had been winding down, until everything came to a head with the general elections, when Puigdemont, who had already given up even leading his party, found himself gifted with seven decisive votes in the Congress of Deputies and decided to use them.
The question is what Juntes wants to do with this key: what door to open, with what goals and who manages this power. For the time being, it has served to allow the investiture of Pedro Sánchez in exchange for an amnesty and a negotiation table on the possibilities of an independence referendum and on the expansion of Catalan self-government and its financing. The procedures are marked solely by Puigdemont, who decided on Tuesday to vote no to the Amnesty law in view of the PSOE’s refusal to introduce changes. (By the way, in the bosom of independence they remember that it was another January 30, like the one that was not invested).
The political practice of Junts and ERC is heir to the process, marked by negotiations resolved in extremis, with solutions that are sometimes eccentric and supposedly cunning. But the Republicans have been shedding those habits and have consolidated a shift towards pragmatism under the premise that independence can only be approached with greater electoral support and political negotiation. ERC, like Bildu, is trying to follow the path of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, which today is reaping the fruits of its strategy.
Junts’ turn, on the other hand, has been unexpected and abrupt, following the result of the generals. And to justify it, Puigdemont has imposed a more rude way of negotiating, with declarative arrogance, which marks distances with the republicans, identified as pusillanimous before the PSOE. It is in this context that the node is registered on Tuesday in the Amnesty law, together with a sincere concern that some judges will prevent its effective application.
But Junts is as trapped as the PSOE. In April, pro-independence leaders will sit in the dock for 1-O. And many more are crossing their fingers for the law to see the light of day. How to explain to them that it is not approved? How to justify to the party that the opportunity to condition a Spanish legislature is lost? It would do nothing for Puigdemont to agree with the PP. Chances are you’ll prefer it. But no one can guarantee him that after another election he will retain the key to governance. Without an Amnesty law, the former president has few cards left to play from Belgium and give political value to his “exile”. Without the Amnesty law, Junts would enter an uncertain phase. On the other hand, in these first steps of negotiation, the post-convergents have already tasted the power of their influence and have perceived in the polls a greater mobilization of their voters.
In the same way, Sánchez needs to renew the relationship with Junts if he wants to complete the legislature. The Spanish president has proposed to continue even if Puigdemont rejects the law and the budgets. But at the same time it is throwing all the coal in the boiler to avoid it. Despite the efforts of his Minister of Justice, Félix Bolaños, to reconcile with the Judiciary, the president is studying legal changes to delimit the time of instruction of judges and thus convince Puigdemont, disturbed by the movements of judge Manuel García-Castellón, that is looking for evidence against him and other pro-independence leaders to accuse them of terrorism.
The Amnesty law is the battering ram with which the opposition tries to wear down Sánchez, but paradoxically its success is also the only way for the president to turn the situation around, since it not only guarantees support from Junts for a stretch of the legislature, but it is the apex of Sánchez’s speech in Spain about political normalization in Catalonia and which would be completed if Salvador Illa achieved an electoral victory that would allow him to govern.
Sánchez assured yesterday that his Government still has 1,260 days ahead of it. For this to be the case, he will have to convince Puigdemont that this is the best way to give meaning to the 2,288 nights that have passed since that October 29, 2017.
