The dilemma between making butter or guns formulated by the economist Paul A. Samuelson explains the production options of a society to meet demand. An earlier version of the Nazi hierarch Hermann Göring summed up the thesis: “Cannons will make us stronger; butter, more fat”. Faced with Göring’s simplism, Samuelson offered intermediate ways to invest in defense without dismantling the welfare state. But, in essence, the question raised in the last century is the same one that Europe is facing now. Cannons to strengthen the military pillar or butter to sustain the social protection net.
Two factors converge in the urgency to decide, Russia’s imperialist aggression and predictable American isolationism. Putin revels in the prospect of war in Ukraine and consolidates his cronyism by threatening his Baltic neighbors, while Trump promises to end the American subsidy that keeps the European spa alive. In Europe’s worst moment since the Second World War, Trump threatens to close the protective umbrella “to criminals” who do not contribute 2% of GDP to the Atlantic pact, that is to say, most of the members, including Spain, which contributes 1.26%.
That said, the opportunity cost is dangerously skewed towards the guns to the detriment of the butter. Because neither doubling the defense investment of the countries that form the European pillar of NATO would compensate for the tens of thousands of soldiers stationed on the continent nor would the American technological contribution be supplemented. Therefore, if Washington turns off the tap, Europe’s exposure to a Russian attack and having to deal with it would increase exponentially. It is true that without Trump in the White House, the hypothesis is less alarming. But the uncertainty and risk facing Europe is so serious that it is necessary to think about the unthinkable and urgently build our own defense system, without the tutelage of the USA, capable of facing the challenges that threaten us. To continue to spread some butter on the bread, maybe now is the time to fill the cannon arsenals.