“There is no plan B”, they assure the European People’s Party (PPE). No time With less than 72 hours left until the deadline set by the people to receive nominations to be the head of the list in the European elections expires, no aspirant has dared to apply. Today, all eyes are on the absolute favorite for the position and, therefore, to lead the next European Commission, the German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen.
The president of the Community Executive will take advantage of attending the meeting that the CDU is holding today in Berlin to announce her desire to be the head of the list or Spitzenkandidat of the EPP in the next elections to the European Parliament, several party sources have confirmed. The final decision will be taken at the congress that will gather the popular Europeans in Bucharest on March 6 and 7, a week after the European social democrats will do the same in Rome.
Despite the fact that in 2019 the Heads of State and Government ignored the process of appointing the President of the Commission defended by the political groups of the Eurochamber – which involves automatically accepting the leader of the most voted formation, their Spitzenkandidat – the PPE has included the system in its statutes and is obliged to elect a candidate.
During the Munich security conference, Von der Leyen allowed himself to drop hints that he aspires to a second term (he answered with a resounding “yes” when asked if there will be a Defense Commissioner in the next Commission, all and who later clarified that it would be like this “if she were the next president”), the German has kept her cards until the end and has managed the times according to her convenience, a strategy that has further strained relations with her political family
Last-minute rivals are not expected, but tough internal negotiations are expected to ensure that the second term has a less environmentalist orientation than the first, during which socialists and greens were supported to legislate. “He has already read the draft of the manifesto that will be approved in Bucharest and he will know how to adhere to it”, indicate sources from the EPP group, with whom he will meet on Wednesday. Pressured by the political family and the tractors in the middle of Europe, Von der Leyen in recent weeks has multiplied the winks to the right at the cost of blurring her legacy, the Green Pact.
He is not expected to participate in electoral events until the final stretch of the campaign. The good rapport with Pedro Sánchez raises doubts in the Popular Party about inviting her to Spain, but they do expect her in Greece and Poland, in charge of Prime Ministers Kiriakos Mitsotakis and Donald Tusk.
The proclamation as the EPP candidate will place Von der Leyen in pole position for a second term, but the outcome is not guaranteed. He has in his favor that all the electoral polls show the EPP as the most voted force in June, but it is not a direct election. In reality, it is the European Council (the leaders of the Twenty-seven) which, taking into account the result of the elections, proposes a candidate to the Parliament. The EPP currently has 13 leaders in this table, a number that, added to the presumed support of the progressive governments of Germany and Spain, makes Von der Leyen face the process with peace of mind. It seems that the window for him to head NATO has closed in recent weeks with the Dutchman Mark Rutte.
Von der Leyen’s visit to Paris this week to meet with President Emmanuel Macron and the appointment with Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggest that, if he confirms the candidacy today, it is because he has everything tied up. Paradoxically, a person who came to power by virtue of a pact between Paris and Berlin that dynamited the Spitzenkandidat system can be the same person who validates it. “It’s water passed”, says the popular Bavarian Manfred Weber, who in the 2019 elections saw that being the head of the list of the group with the most votes was worth nothing.
That the European social democrats bet on a candidate with a more than discreet political profile, Luxembourg’s Nicolas Schmit, Commissioner for Employment, indicates that their bets are on other paths: to get the European Council or to keep the position of high representative of Foreign Policy . The name of António Costa, former Portuguese prime minister, socialist, is circulating again as a possible replacement for Charles Michel, while the liberals are betting on Kaja Kallas, prime minister of Estonia, to replace Josep Borrell.
