An international team led by scientists from the National Oceanography Center (NOC) of the United Kingdom has discovered a new factor that may be a determining factor in the appearance of heat waves in the summer months in Europe. The data analyzed by this group led by researcher Marilena Oltmanns indicate that the greater destruction of floating ice in the North Atlantic (due to the effect of warming associated with climate change) increases the proportion of fresh water in this oceanic area and can trigger a set of processes that include the formation of heat waves and, overall, warmer and drier summers in much of the European continent.
The results of this research, which are published (February 28) in the open access journal Weather and Climate Dynamics of the European Geosciences Union, suggest that from the detailed study of this process, the European summer climate is predictable months or years in advance.
Discussing the implications, lead author Marilena Oltmanns, a research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, said: “While the UK and northern Europe experienced unusually cool and wet weather in the summer of 2023, Greenland experienced an unusually cool and wet summer. warm, which caused an increase in the entry of fresh water into the ocean. North Atlantic. “Based on the identified chain of events, we expect oceanic atmospheric conditions to be favorable for an unusually warm and dry summer in southern Europe this year.”
Marilena Oltmansns details that, “depending on the path of fresh water in the North Atlantic, we also expect a warm and dry summer in northern Europe within the next five years.” In this way, experts hope to be able to “more accurately estimate the exact year of the hot and dry summer in northern Europe in the winter before it occurs,” indicates the co-author of the new study.
Melting sea ice and glacial ice is an increasing source of freshwater for the North Atlantic, and changes in the amount of sea ice can alter normal ocean circulation, influencing global climate. With ice melting increasing, the study suggests that heat waves and droughts in Europe will become more intense in the future. Warming in Europe following strong releases of freshwater into the North Atlantic will add to the warming already occurring due to climate change, by causing changes in weather patterns.
The team led by Marilena Oltmansns considers that “these new findings demonstrate the importance of ocean observations to ensure that climate models capture all the physical processes necessary to make accurate weather predictions.” “This study is a step forward to improve the models, “which will allow industries and stakeholders to plan ahead for specific weather conditions, such as adapting farming methods to be more resilient, predicting fuel use and preparing for flooding,” says Oltmansns in a briefing note released by the European Union. Geosciences.
