Throughout this week, thousands of delegates from all over China will take their places in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, on the occasion of the annual double session. The world will pay particular attention to it from today, when the National People’s Assembly (ANP) is inaugurated, in order to decipher the economic and diplomatic direction of the Asian giant.
As an appetizer, yesterday began the Consultative Assembly, which is held in parallel, with the presence of representatives of entities associated with the Communist Party, ethnic minorities and even celebrities from cinema and sports.
Beyond the folklore and the unanimous applause, the great political event of the year makes it possible to learn about the macroeconomic objectives of the Chinese Government. It will also be the first time that Chinese Premier Li Qiang will present his annual report, which will hardly be able to soften the challenges facing the country, with economic growth (5.2% in 2023) enviable from the point than Europe or Taiwan (1.4%), but well below its average of the past decade.
In this sense, youth unemployment is beginning to be worrying, as is the general cooling of expectations, combined with the beginning of the demographic decline. For this reason, domestic consumption does not quite take off, nor does it manage to compensate for the loss of momentum in exports. The concern extends to the quotation of their companies, which lost more than 10% on the stock market last year. Not to mention the bankruptcy of the two main real estate companies, Evergrande and Country Garden.
Many questions, which could remain unanswered. For the first time in more than three decades, the Chinese premier will not close the plenary with a press conference in front of the national and international media. Despite the fact that the questions were agreed in advance – as happens in other countries – it was one of the few opportunities to simulate a dialectical ping-pong with communist nomenclature.
Although Xi Jinping – the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping – does not need to remove his co-religionists from the spotlight, this suppression can be interpreted as a return to hermeticism. Although China has lavished gestures of openness, such as the visa exemption for tourists from Spain, France, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands for stays of less than fifteen days.
In another sign of rigidity, amendments are planned to tighten the State Secrets law, with Western consulting agencies in the spotlight. On the other hand, the script provided by Beijing does not envisage important political changes, despite the fact that there had been speculation about the departure of the recovered Wang Yi to Foreign Affairs.
One of the most anticipated data, beyond the forecasts of GDP growth, the trade surplus or the public deficit, is the Chinese Defense budget for 2024. Following the invasion of Ukraine and Palestine, the rearmament of the China is taken for granted as much as Europe. For the umpteenth consecutive year. Although it is not surprising to remember that it has been more than forty-five years since the People’s Republic has not fired a shot outside its borders.
The modernization of the People’s Liberation Army is directly related to an indispensable horizon for the communist regime. In other words, the reintegration of the island of Taiwan – where more than twenty million Chinese live outside the umbrella of Beijing – under the “one country, two systems” model, experienced with its pros and cons in Hong Kong and Macau
Nevertheless, in May, a politician, Lai Ching Te, will take over the presidency in Taipei, even more secessionist than her predecessor, Tsai Ing Wen, accompanied by a directly American vice president (although she would have renounced this passport).
Finally, the Chinese president and general secretary of the Communist Party (CPC), Xi Jinping, attended yesterday the inaugural meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body composed of delegates from various organizations, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing
