Salvador Illa’s PSC is clearly consolidating itself as the formation that would win the Catalan elections on May 12, by obtaining between 40 and 47 deputies, compared to the 33 it has now, while Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, and ERC, with the president Pere Aragonès at the head, they would compete for second place with a slight advantage for the Republicans both in seats and votes, in a Parliament in which Aliança Catalana, the far-right party led by the mayor of Ripoll, Sílvia Orriols, could enter. according to the survey released this Friday by the Center d’estudis d’Opinió (CEO) dependent on the Generalitat.
The survey, whose field work was carried out between April 11 and 22 through telephone surveys with a sample of 1,500 people with the right to vote in the Parliamentary elections, also predicts that the PP would consolidate in fourth place and that Comunes Sumar could collapse to seventh and therefore last if Aliança Catalana does not enter.
The truth is that the CEO’s survey gives very wide ranges both in terms of seats and votes, making it difficult to propose possible majorities beyond the fact that, according to their numbers, PSC and ERC would together easily reach an absolute majority. In fact, according to these estimates, it is not ruled out that Junts and ERC could achieve it even without the CUP.
Specifically, the poll gives the socialists a clear victory with a vote estimate of between 28 and 33%, which would give them between 40 and 47 seats. According to the survey, the growth of Illa’s formation in deputies would go from 8 to 14.
Esquerra would be in second position with a vote estimate of between 20 and 24% with a projection of seats between 31 and 37 compared to the current 33, which in any case contrasts with what the published opinion barometer reflected. by the same demoscopic organization at the end of March, which gave the Republicans between 26 and 32 deputies.
Something similar happens with Junts, which would be in third position with a vote estimate of between 18 and 22%, which would give it between 28 and 34 deputies (now it has 32), when in March the CEO gave it between 24 and 29 seats. In the case of the post-convergents, however, the rise is explained by the Puigdemont effect, since the former president’s candidacy was not known when the field work of the previous survey was carried out since it was carried out before the electoral call.
The Catalan PP, with Alejandro Fernández at the helm, would take a big leap to go from the current 3 deputies to a range of between 8 and 12, but according to the CEO, the push of the popular brand would be stabilized since the March barometer It gave up to 13 seats. Vox would also suffer a slowdown, which after obtaining 11 seats in 2021 would remain, according to the survey, in a range of 5 to 9 deputies.
The CUP would gain between 4 and 8 deputies from the current 9, while the Common Sumar could pay dearly for its rejection of the budgets, which caused the electoral advance, by keeping between 3 and 6 seats, losing between 2 and 5 of the deputies they had in this legislature.
Finally, the survey gives the possibility that Aliança Catalana enters the Parliament with up to two deputies and leaves citizens out.
In terms of vote transfer, PSC, VOX, and Junts present the highest levels of vote retention (73, 72 and 62%, respectively) while the Comunes Sumar (49) and the PP (53), the lowest . A separate case is Ciudadanos with a zero retention rate. 37% of its former voters go to the PP while 20% to the PSC, and another 37% will abstain.
For their part, Republicans have a lot of doubtful votes, according to the survey, since one in five respondents hesitate between casting the PSC or ERC ballot and many others hesitate between ERC and Junts. 12% hesitate between voting for the CUP or ERC and one in ten among the Republicans or the Commons.
Regarding the preference for the different possible post-electoral pacts to form the Government, Esquerra is located in the center. Among socialist voters, the most mentioned option is the Republicans (46%) while the PSC is the preferred option for Comuns Sumar voters (47%). Those who will vote for Junts (66%) and the CUP (39%) mostly prefer an agreement with ERC. ERC voters are more divided between those who would prefer Junts (34%) and those who would lean towards an agreement with the PSC (30%). Vox voters would choose the PP (60%) and those of the PP the most frequent option is not to indicate any (36%). Those of Aliança Catalana would prefer to agree with Junts (63%).
The survey also asks about the degree of knowledge and evaluation of the candidates and concludes that the best rated are Pere Aragonès, with a 5.1 out of 10, and the leader of the PSC, Salvador Illa (5.0). Only they approve. They are followed in evaluation by Laia Estrada (CUP) and Jéssica Albiach, (Comunes Sumar), who are one tenth away from the pass (4.9). Carles Puigdemont is next with a 4.2 and behind him are Alejandro Fernández (2.9), Ignacio Garriga (2.0) and Carlos Carrizosa, who with a 1.9 is in last place.
However, Puigdemont leads in terms of knowledge with 99%, Laia Estrada, from the CUP, remains at 30%. For their part, Aragonès (92%) and Salvador Illa (87%) continue the list, followed by Carlos Carrizosa (56%) and Jéssica Albiach (52%). In addition to Estrada, Alejandro Fernández and Ignacio Garriga do not reach 50% knowledge on the part of those surveyed.
The survey also asks about the position regarding the independence of Catalonia, and in this case, 50% are against, thus exceeding the 42% who are in favor. Among the parties, Junts is the one with the highest percentage of pro-independence supporters (88%), followed by the CUP (83%) and ERC (82%). On the other hand, Vox and PP are the ones with the most people against independence (98% and 94% respectively). PSC (86% against) and Comuns (72%) complete the list.
Furthermore, the majority of respondents prefer that Catalonia continue to be an autonomous community within Spain (30%), one point above those who prefer it to be an independent state (30%). Among the rest, 22% propose that Catalonia be a state within a federal Spain, and 8% a region of Spain.
