Jorge Dezcallar (Palma de Mallorca, 1945) is a diplomat with extensive experience. He has been ambassador in key places such as Morocco or the United States, and also head of the CNI, the Spanish secret services. In recent years he has published memoirs and novels, always under the landscape of international relations or espionage. He now he talks about Ukraine. He just published The End of an Era. Ukraine, the war that accelerates everything (The Sphere of Books). He attends La Vanguardia in a hotel in Barcelona, ??where he has traveled for a debate.
Is the main reason for the invasion of Ukraine Russia’s fear of being left out on a changing world board?
When Obama said that Russia was a regional power, he took a dig at the nationalist Putin. Then Borrell said that Russia is a gas station with atomic bombs. It produces commodities or raw materials and this for a man who intends to play in the Champions League is very hard. But he doesn’t have a team for the Champions League, no bench or coach or anything.
Russia has a GDP only slightly above Italy. Can it withstand such a war?
It is using 17% of its GDP on defense. It is spending more than on social spending. Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, once said that they would win this war because the Westerners would get tired. Because the Russians have a capacity for suffering that the West does not have.
Can Ukraine’s resistance stop Russia from similar adventures in countries where there are also high percentages of Russian speakers? Is this a warning to Putin?
So far things have not turned out for Russia as I had thought. His initial objective was to occupy kyiv and he failed to do so. She is encountering a resistance that she did not expect, and an opposition that is not global, as they say, but Western, which is not the same.
What is China’s role?
They are looking very carefully: what has been the response, what is the cost to Russia’s image…
Did NATO commit anti-diplomacy?
It’s hard to say. Indeed, Russia feels surrounded. At first, post-Soviet Russia even thought about joining NATO. How much do things go wrong? Every country has the right to its security and it is true that the Baltic countries were offered entry into the European Union and they said: ‘Thank you very much, but what interests me is NATO, because if you lived here you would realize that my security is NATO.’ And it’s true. We could have been more skillful in the way we interacted with Russia. We lacked the vision to try to integrate Russia into security schemes, and at the same time to prevent this totalitarian drift. There was no intelligent policy.
What other factors in the global context allow Putin to think that he will invade Ukraine and nothing will happen?
I believe that the decision was made in 2014 when it invaded Crimea and destabilized Donbass. The West reacts, but it costs Putin little, just one point of GDP, and that encourages him. Two very important things happen in 2020. One, Russia’s area of ??influence is beginning to unravel, with demonstrations in Belarus and Kazakhstan. The alarms go off. That coincides with a new chancellor in Germany, elections in France, the United Kingdom with Boris Johnson and his party, the United States has just left Afghanistan… he believes that it is the right time to do what he believes is the security of Russia and the greatness of Russia demand.
But it’s not going well.
He starts it with few soldiers to occupy a country of 46 million. I think he hoped to take kyiv and set up a puppet government that would control from afar without needing to occupy the country. But it gets complicated for him and he has to retreat, due to intelligence and logistical errors.
Where is Putin’s miscalculation?
The Russian intelligence services are good and they had to know that they were not going to receive them with flowers. It is easy to blame intelligence networks and it is always done. I tend to think of a very important element, and that is that dictators do not listen and those around them tend to tell them what they want to hear.
Despite the extremely high level of technology, the role that the trench plays in this war is curious.
Is right. In a world with extremely high technology and bombs and ultrasonic missiles, the trench continues to play a role. The Russian Chief of Staff, Valery Gerasimov, long ago said that out of every four components, the wars of the future will have one traditional and three cybernetic. Here the trenches and enormous use of missiles and drones play a role, which are the ones that are really on the ground changing the circumstances. They are very cheap and very effective. There is a lot of jamming, which is electronic interference. And the intelligence that the United States is giving is key: ‘Shoot here, shoot there.’
Should we fear further irritation from Putin because of this?
That is the great debate about belligerence. It is one thing to support and another to intervene. What we are doing, the West is supporting Ukraine and supporting it stingily, it must also be said. Ukraine is being given the necessary instruments to defend itself but not the instruments to win because they do not want to provoke a third world war. A defeated Russia would be very serious. And a victorious Russia too. It might encourage her to do other things.
You talk about eight possible scenarios. Since you wrote the book, would you choose one of them?
What I see as most likely is a Korea-type armistice. I don’t think either of them are in a position for a quick and decisive victory. And as long as both think they can win, the necessary steps for a negotiation are not taken. The easiest thing would be a ceasefire that would allow the two to maintain their positions, their maximum demands, but that would leave them temporarily frozen. But Russia wants to reach Odessa and leave Ukraine without a coast.
Is a questioning of Putin feasible?
No. Things would have to go very badly for the people around Putin to start losing interest in… there are many people around Putin whose luck and business depend precisely on Putin. Putin comes from the intelligence services and knows how to avoid a coup.
Ukraine is causing enormous changes: for example, in the West we are accepting hitherto unprecedented militarist policies. Is it reality time?
This war turns the entire European architecture since 1945 upside down. On the other hand, it has reduced Europe’s energy dependence on Russia and we are effectively in a moment of increasing militarization. And there is talk – I wouldn’t say frivolously – easily of a war. It’s not likely but it’s not impossible.
European military spending is somewhat higher than China’s and is 5.5 times that of Russia, but our feeling is of weakness. Because?
Above all, because we do not have a common foreign or defense policy. We are not able to speak with a single voice. But we see it in Gaza, where Europe is absolutely ineffective, when it can greatly affect us in many things. And in Libya, where the Turks support one faction and the Russians support another. And it is there in front, and we have very large energy interests in it. Either we are able to speak with one voice, or no one will take us into account. And then we have a problem of interoperability of our forces. Instead of having seven helicopter models, we should have only one. And that the ammunition of the armies was interchangeable. It is not like this.
Are you worried about a possible Trump victory?
Very much. I was ambassador to the United States, but I am retired and I can say what I think. Trump said that ‘we have to be unpredictable’, and he has fulfilled it. He baffles friends and enemies alike. He believes that if the Europeans do not spend 2% on defense they should abandon us to the Russians. He believes that NATO is useless. He talks about imposing tariffs of 10% on all European products and 60% on Chinese ones. A second term for Trump, knowing that he cannot be re-elected and without adults in the room like he had in the first term, would be very serious. He could do anything.
Does this war benefit anyone?
Neither to Ukraine nor to Russia, of course. Russia has strengthened NATO, the EU, and the transatlantic relationship. Reconstruction of Ukraine may cost one trillion euros. China is viewing this war with suspicion because it breaks important principles for diplomacy, such as non-interference in internal affairs or respect for sovereignty. China is uncomfortable, but on the other hand Russia is falling into its arms, and that is good for China.
Why do you say that this war accelerates everything?
There is an acceleration of historical time, because today we are experiencing four simultaneous revolutions. The technological one, that of the atom, with all the robotization, which causes unemployment and unrest, the digital one, which is the most brutal of all… Kai-Fu Lee has written a book, AI Superpowers, in which he calculates that artificial intelligence is going to contribute 15 trillion to the world’s GDP by 2050, and half will go to China. And there is a demographic revolution, the population has doubled in 40 years. Biden says it is the most dangerous moment since the Cuban war. There is also a regulatory disagreement between the United States and China. There are a number of countries in the third world now, with China at the head, that want a new distribution of power and different rules of operation.
And with artificial intelligence in full explosion. I would like to ask you something about it, but I don’t even know what. How do you see it?
It escapes me too. But I am proud of one thing: at the head of the CNI I saw something coming and twenty years ago I created the National Cryptological Center. I didn’t suppose I would go this far. I’m very worried. Some say that unemployment will increase greatly, but there will also be more productivity, that is, higher salaries, more leisure… it will have advantages, like everything. The problem is whether generative artificial intelligence will have the capacity for thought and reflection, to reach the moment of singularity, which according to some may arrive in 2025. So, if machines are capable of thinking… because we die, but machines accumulate. I believe that there are great risks of weaponization, military use and misinformation. We have to control how it is regulated and how security is reconciled with innovation. That is the great challenge of artificial intelligence. It is not resolved.
Europe has a tradition and a regulatory will, but the challenges are global.
Yes. And the problem is that the global environment is not inclined to make concessions in that sense, with an open war, microchip crisis, threats against TikTok in the United States… We are experiencing a fight for a new distribution of power in the world. Why is France on the Security Council and not India? And there is no African there, that must be changed. The rules that govern the world are Western. Today the Universal Declaration of Human Rights would not be approved by consensus. Arabs and Chinese question why democracy is better than meritocracy or why the individual is more important than the group. Or why you talk to me about gender equality if it is not what the Koran says or why religion should subscribe to the private sphere and not permeate the daily life of the believer.
We are talking about Ukraine and another conflict has broken out. What impact does Gaza have on Ukraine?
Gaza has been a tremendous gift to Putin. The Palestinians have seen in recent times that no one was lifting a finger for them and they mount a brutal, disproportionate, terrorist, bloodthirsty attack, which causes an oversized reaction from Israel. The fact is that Ukraine then takes a backseat.
He directed the CNI, one of those responsible for security in Spain. To what extent can Gaza stimulate jihadist actions at the local level?
It’s a real risk. The Muslim world is shocked. The networks used by the Islamic State, which are still operational, are sending more bellicose messages. It happened to Russia precisely. It can happen anywhere. In that fight we must be united, even with the Russians. These lone wolves are the ones that worry any intelligence service the most. They are uncontrollable. There is no transfer of mail, no transfer of weapons, no transfer of money.
