Abstracted by the five days of April, we have almost overlooked the turn of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission and candidate for re-election. In the course of a first debate in Brussels between the spitzenkandidat (official candidates of the major European formations for the presidency of the Commission), Von der Leyen has opened the door to a pact with the Brothers of Italy and Vox to to the governance of the European institutions during the next mandate.
This was not the position of the president of the Commission a few months ago, when she seemed very focused on taking care of the relationship with social democrats and liberals, forces that were decisive for her election in July 2019, after a very difficult negotiation process agitated The official candidate of the EPP was the Bavarian Manfred Weber, who was vetoed by Emmanuel Macron and Pedro Sánchez on behalf of liberals and social democrats. Angela Merkel, still the Federal Chancellor of Germany, did not lift a finger to defend Weber, who belongs to the Bavarian CSU coalition, the most right-wing faction of German conservatism. Then the name of Von der Leyen, German Minister of Defense and member of the Christian Democratic CDU, came up.
Offended, Weber entrenched himself in the presidency of the EPP and has cultivated a special grudge against Macron and Sánchez. Over the past year, Weber has encouraged the alliance of traditional conservatives with far-right forces, with the only condition that they be loyal to NATO and bluntly defend Ukraine in the war with Russia. The pilot plan was started in Italy, with the support of the declining Berlusconism in Giorgia Meloni, pragmatic by day, very tolerant of neo-fascism by night. Then came Sweden and Finland, and the circle had to be closed by Spain with a possible PP-Vox coalition government, which could not be because the Spanish decided so in July 2023. The Europeanist Von der Leyen did not he never spared gestures of support and gratitude to Sánchez, a circumstance that greatly enraged the Spanish PP.
What mystery closes this week’s tactical turn? Von der Leyen wants to be re-elected and knows that she does not have the unanimous support of the EPP, as Weber’s shadow is extended. He also knows that Macron might have other plans this time. The French president wants to lead the strategic rethinking of the European Union, with Germany in the offing, and could propose an independent figure to preside over the Commission. We are talking about Christine Lagarde (BCE), Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) and the eternal Mario Draghi.
Aware of the risks his candidacy runs, Von der Leyen has been courting Meloni for weeks, who in turn maintains an excellent relationship with Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox. A very favorable situation is being created for the Italian Prime Minister. Von der Leyen now needs her, and if Draghi were elected, he would celebrate it as a great triumph for Italy.
Let these notes serve to see more clearly the breach that Sánchez was about to commit during the five days of April. It has sent a signal of weakness to the European power centers, it has distanced itself from the Great Game of Brussels, it has given way to Macron and it has stimulated the ambition of Meloni, who has never stopped having his eyes on Spain .
Sánchez may have been shrewd, but not Machiavellian.
