Tens of thousands of people in seven key states can decide the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, which is expected to be at least as close as 2020. In that election, the support of young college students was essential to victory of Joe Biden, but it is less and less clear that he will revalidate confidence in the president.
Protests over Gaza on campuses across the country, notably at universities in New York and Los Angeles, initially targeted the universities’ financial ties to companies that supply weapons and military equipment to the Israeli military. But as they spread across the country, the focus is increasingly on Biden for his unwavering support in Tel Aviv, beyond a series of warnings, which do not appear to sway the Cabinet war led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
Yesterday the president briefly addressed the nation with a message condemning both “anti-Semitism” and “Islamophobia”, which “have no place in America”. He affirmed that the Constitution protects the “right to protest, but not to cause chaos”, and expressed himself in defense of “freedom of expression”, but also of the “Rule of Law”, in statements which do not seem to satisfy either of the two conflicting parties.
“I want to make it clear: violent protest is not protected; peaceful protest, yes”, said the president from the Roosevelt Room of the White House. “Destroying property is not a peaceful protest, it is against the law. Vandalism, home invasion, breaking windows, closing campuses, forcing the cancellation of classes and graduations. None of this is peaceful protest, threatening people, intimidating people. Dissent is essential for democracy, but it must never lead to disorder.”
With his speech, Biden tried to take a delicate path and defend the right to peaceful protest so as not to alienate the young vote, but maintaining the denunciation of what he perceives as “escalating anti-Semitism”. But more than the right to protest, the heart of the students’ demands is an end to the bloodshed in Gaza. After his statement, a reporter asked him if the protests will change his administration’s support for Israel, and he answered with a resounding “no.” And he used the same monosyllable when asked if states should use the National Guard to intervene on campuses.
Looking ahead to November, the president does not see any danger to his victory in California and New York, the focus of the protests, since they are two clear Democratic strongholds. But he should be concerned about the demonstrations, for example, at the two main universities in Pennsylvania, a state that swept Trump in 2020 by the narrow margin of one point. Or the punishment votes in the primary processes in swing states like Wisconsin – where he won in 2020 by 21,000 votes and in these primaries 47,000 Democrats voted blank – or Michigan, where he received 100,000 protest votes in February.
The latest poll by the prestigious Emerson College indicates that, at the moment, Trump has an advantage over Biden in the seven states considered key: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Although it also reveals that the margin is narrow, between one and five points, depending on the state, and there is time to turn the situation around.
While Donald Trump’s popularity ratings have remained intact since his entry into politics in 2015 (nearly 40% of Americans continue to have a favorable opinion of the tycoon), Biden’s approval rating will plummet in 2021, after of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and the role of the Administration in Gaza could leave his aspirations for re-election badly affected. Those who protest are not inclined to vote for Trump, who made it clear during his term of office the alignment with Israel, for example, by moving the United States embassy to. But the abstention of tens of thousands of disaffected and unconvinced young people to vote for the “lesser evil” would be enough to thwart Biden’s electoral ambition.
