This Thursday, BBVA launched a hostile takeover bid for Banc Sabadell. With the offer rejected by the leadership of the entity chaired by Josep Oliu, the ball is now in the court of the shareholders, who have to decide whether or not to accept the proposal to exchange 4.83 shares of the Catalan bank for one of BBVA.
According to the current stock market evolution, it is equivalent to valuing Sabadell’s share price at 2.12 euros, or the total capital at 12,376 million euros. Sabadell shares rose 3% around mid-session, up to 1.86 euros per share. For its part, BBVA shares fell sharply, 6%, below 10 euros (9.66 euros).
If all shareholders accept, they will have 16% of BBVA’s capital. The hostile takeover is conditional on reaching a level of acceptance of Sabadell’s capital of 50.01%, so it is not exclusionary. BBVA maintains the commitment that there is a double operational headquarters, in Madrid and in Sant Cugat, and that the Sabadell brand is maintained in some territories.
“This movement was something the market did not expect and it indicates to us the conviction that BBVA management has in the synergies that could be generated,” comments Javier Cabrera, XTB analyst. “From our point of view, the problems lie in greater market concentration and the regulatory risk of the operation. Not to mention that they also have to reach an acceptance of 50.01%. Therefore, the operation is not yet closed,” he adds.
For their part, Bankinter experts are more forceful and do not believe that the operation will go ahead, since the takeover bid presents the same conditions already offered, under the same conditions already known. The entity reaffirms that “it is unlikely that this takeover bid will go ahead under these terms because it offers a simple exchange of shares that, with yesterday’s trading closings, implies a premium of 18.4%.”
From Renta4, their analysts consider that at the proposed price, “the offer is not attractive,” and they assure that they would not attend the takeover bid.
Last week’s offer already generated a crossroads of opinions among the leaders. Sabadell already said when rejecting the offer that it “significantly undervalues” the entity. BBVA, for its part, maintains that the proposal is “exceptionally favorable.”
For their part, Banca March analysts indicate that after the launch of the hostile takeover bid, “the ball is now in the court of the shareholders of Banco Sabadell, an entity that has a high level of fragmentation.” In this regard, they assure that the key to the operation could revolve around the position of the large investment funds, where up to 71 of them have simultaneous participations in both entities, among which those of BlackRock, Norges and Vanguard Group stand out. , which have a joint 10.2% in Sabadell and 17.9% in BBVA.
