The PSC candidate, Salvador Illa, would be the winner of the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia held this Sunday but he would have to agree on his investiture with ERC and Comuns Sumar to achieve the presidency of the Generalitat, according to the survey published by TVE and TV3 at the close of the electoral colleges, which predicts the entry into the Catalan Chamber of the far-right Aliança Catalana of Sílvia Orriols.
In second position and a short distance from Illa would be former president Carles Puigdemont, from Junts, and in third, but already more than 10 seats away, the current president, already in office, Pere Aragonès, who, however, would have the key to governance. Alejandro Fernández (PP) and Ignacio Garriga (Vox) would compete for fourth place, followed by Laia estrada (CUP) and Jéssica Albiach (Comuns Sumar), who would fight for sixth.
Specifically, the poll of public channels, prepared by Sigma Dos, gives the socialists between 37 and 40 deputies, which represents a jump of between 4 and 7 seats compared to the 33 that Salvador Illa had since the 2021 elections.
For the post-convergents, the survey gives between 33 and 36 deputies an improvement of between one and four seats compared to 2021. On the other hand, the Republicans would not benefit from having governed and would lose between 6 and 9 seats to remain in a range of between 24 and 27.
The PP would make a great advance by passing 3 seats in 2021 (its worst result in history) and would win between 9 and 12 seats, but it would not be able to distance itself from Vox, which would win between 10 and 11, very similar results. to those he obtained in the previous elections.
The CUP would lose between one and three seats to reach a range of 6-8 deputies, and Comuns Sumar, responsible for the electoral advance by rejecting the Government’s budgets, would also give up between one and two deputies and would be left with 6 or 7.
Finally, Aliança Catalana would obtain between 1 and 3 deputies and Ciudadanos would be left out of the Parliament, for the first time since its first Catalan elections in 2006.
If the result of this poll is confirmed, the absolute majority (68 seats) would be within reach of the pro-independence parties even without Aliança Catalana. It is worth remembering that Junts, ERC and the CUP committed last week not to rely on the votes of Sílvia Orriols’ party.
Another possible majority would be that of the tripartite led by the PSC with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar. Socialists and Republicans in the widest band given to them by the survey would add 67 deputies, just one short of the absolute majority.
Other polls carried out this Sunday, such as that of Gesop for El Periódico or Sociometrica for El Español, give better results for the PSC and worse for the independence parties, so only the left-wing tripartite party would seem viable to gain an absolute majority.
