He will, however, seek to “escalate,” his country’s aggression towards Kyiv over the next few weeks, top U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday.
A “aggrieved Putin” likely “perceives it as a war that he cannot afford losing,” stated Avril Haines (director of national intelligence), who testified before the House Intelligence Community in an annual hearing on global threats.
She was joined by CIA director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray and Cyber Command Commander and NSA director General Paul Nakasone. On Thursday, Defense Intelligence Agency director Lieutenant Gen. Scott Berrier will also appear before the Senate Intelligence Community.
Haines stated that Moscow had faced “significantly more resistance from Ukraine” than it anticipated and that it would be “particularly difficult” for Russia to control territory in Ukraine in the face of a “persistent, significant insurgency.”
Haines stated that “he has no sustainable political ending game in the face” of the military’s resistance to Ukraine.
Berrier, the Pentagon’s chief of military intelligence, stated that Russia’s military suffered “somewhere between 2000-4,000” casualties. This was a low-confidence assessment he said was based on intelligence and open source sources.
Burns, the CIA director said that Putin had spent years stewing in a “combustible mixture of grievances and ambition” and had begun a military invasion based upon a few flawed assumptions.
Burns stated, “He’s proven wrong,” noting that the Russian leader’s views have “hardened” over time as he has become “more insulated from different points of view.”
Burns said, however, that a “angry, frustrated” Putin would likely carry on his military campaign without much regard for civilian casualties.
He said, “He is likely will double down and try the grind down of the Ukrainian military without any regard for civilian casualties,” adding that he was predicting “an ugly few weeks.”
He said that Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and other political leaders were not “settled” by the events in Ukraine. This included how they had drawn Europe closer to the United States. Burns stated that Beijing was becoming more wary of the “reputational damage,” which its close association to Moscow could cause.
Berrier predicted that Ukrainians would have less food and water than they need to survive for “10 days to two week” if supply lines are cut. He said, “It will be somewhat desperate.”
Haines stated that U.S. intelligence agencies are monitoring “very closely” any Russian strategic or nuclear weapon movements, and acknowledged that Putin’s decision last month to increase alert was “highly unusual.”
Haines stated that “we are not seeing anything at this stage that he’s doing something different from he was in the past.” She said that she believes he signals, and is trying to deter.
The annual written report of the intelligence community, released Tuesday, stated that Russia “doesn’t want a direct clash with U.S forces,” but considered its nuclear capabilities necessary for maintaining deterrence, and achieving its goals in any potential conflict against the United States or NATO.
The report stated that “It regards a credible nuclear weapons defense as the ultimate guarantor for the Russian Federation.”
