India cannot and does not want to replace Ukraine in the league of major wheat exporters. In a 180-degree turn, New Delhi on Saturday banned the export of the grain, after reassessing its own needs. Two days later, the price of wheat in Europe reached a record of 435 euros per tonne.
Although the Indian harvest of this cereal is the second largest in the world, its immense population absorbs it by almost 90%. In any case, it was the Indian Prime Minister himself, on his European mini-tour this month, who fueled hopes that his country could cover a larger share of world wheat exports (currently 3%), due to the situation of Ukraine and Russia.
Moreover, one day before the veto, the Ministry of Commerce itself announced missions to nine countries – including Morocco, Turkey or the Philippines – to promote the export of Indian wheat.
In the name of food security, the Indian government disavowed itself within twenty-four hours. Although the reduction in the harvest has been invoked, of around 5%, due to the severe heat wave of recent months, the underlying reason is inflation, which is international, although in the Indian case it exceeds 15% and affects the entire shopping basket.
It should not be forgotten that in India the central government and the various states spend huge amounts on the purchase of basic products that they then distribute at a subsidized price.
This May, which is the key month, the State has only managed to buy, through its guaranteed minimum price program, half the wheat that it did last year. Something that has triggered alarms, especially when circulating that China is monopolizing reserves equivalent to the consumption of a year and a half.
India has also taken note of Indonesia’s palm oil export ban.
Contrary to this line, the Indian economist Ashok Gulati defends the farmers who have chosen to sell to the private sector in search of a higher profit and criticizes the Government that, rather than pay more, prefers to short-circuit exports.
“The praise of the free market ends when it benefits the farmer, instead of harming him,” says Gulati ironically, “or when the victim is not him, but the urban consumer.”
In the ports of Gujarat, four ships and 4,000 trucks loaded with wheat are immobilized. Yesterday, the Government gave carte blanche to those who began customs procedures before Saturday.
The price of wheat on the markets has already risen 60% since the invasion of Ukraine and raises the specter of bread riots in the most exposed countries. In Bangladesh, which until now imported half of India’s wheat, concern is growing.
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