Menotti said: “If you become strong in an idea, it is what can help you the most, because if the idea is not clear, you open the door to it at random.” Politics is a public service, sport, science and art in which the idea is everything. Spain is a plurinational, social and legal State that wants to advance towards the country that we deserve. That’s the idea. Neither the generation of democracy nor the generation of the transition that defend this idea of ??Spain will understand otherwise. For this reason, in the first The Situation Room we said: “The PSOE is today at 2016 levels with 5,800,000 votes after the turn to the apparatus on July 10 and the PP wins in 41 of the 52 provinces with Vox as the third force and constantly growing.” It was November 11, 2021 and the May CIS already confirms it. A conservative analysis of the loyalty table and barometer transfers reflects the following table: PP 6,700,000, PSOE 5,900,000, Vox 3,900,000, UP 2,700,000.
In CIS figures, the PSOE is below its average for the legislature, while the PP is at the highest level since the barometer of April 2012, when it still had the absolute majority of 2011. The popular ones even exceed in direct intention 20.7% in January 2017, its best moment in the legislature prior to the motion of censure. His loyalty increases (by 80%), he reduces his transfer to Vox to 8% (400,000 votes) and wins him 14.8% (about 540,000 votes), also capturing 43% of Cs (about 710,000 voters, almost a million with the 10-N abstentionists who stopped voting for Albert Rivera). In these months the PP has grown seven and a half points thanks to the prominence of a mahogany space that Alberto Nuñez Feijoó has taken advantage of (without doing much), while Pablo Casado, a big mistake, never knew how to rent. Last example: they are first among the voters who are in 5, which is the most frequent section among the supposed “centrists” (remember the trap: the center does not exist, the causes exist). Will the right side get more than 55% of the votes in Andalusia? Yes. More than 47% in the demographic universe in Spain? Yes.
The PSOE wages a battle in the only political space in which it cannot win and that depresses its growth possibilities and those of the purples. Result: the generation of democracy moves away, the generation of the transition distrusts. The idea? He retains just under two thirds of his electorate (63.8%) and his main flight is towards the PP (5.6%, some 380,000 votes). As the British James Getting away with it (All messed up) sings. That’s the living. Vox grows in the “meanwhile” (77% fidelity). and UP? Crashes (57% fidelity). His voters sleep waiting for the “reunion” with Yolanda Díaz and at the same time for the vice president’s recognition that the car will have a Podemos engine or it will not leave the box. Or worse, two could come out. Success and its perception influence its protagonists and the native Ferrari. We have been explaining it for seven months with the expectation that the vice president could be the first female president, an essential motive for the president to be reelected. Seven months. The idea.
Is it impossible to overturn the absolute majority of the right? It is not. In the middle of the red code before the municipal and regional ones, you have to be clear: the only person who can win 99% of the Feijóo-Vox tandem is Pedro Sánchez, but he has to add Yolanda Díaz. The idea. As one of the presidents I most admire, Jokin Aperribay, says (in the case of Real Sociedad), progressives must: 1) be the best from Monday to Friday, 2) deserve to win and 3) bring generations together. In politics, you have to know how to win, know how to lose and know how to stop in order to know how to return (being someone else) and know how to add. It is valid for the president and the vice president, two political spaces that must “add up” presenting themselves separately. Menotti also said it: “We believed that success was going to save us. But success is like reaching the edge of the abyss: one more step and we disappear. On the other hand, if we take a step back we can once again aspire to glory. So let’s take that step back (going back to the idea).”
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