Cynthia Rosenzweig is a scientist and farmer who was once an aEUR”. Her work on climate change revolved around one question: “So What?”
She says, “Impacts on climate change are critically important.” “If the climate is changing and nothing happens, why should we care?”
She was among the first to make projections about how changing climate will affect North American crops in the 1980s. NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies researcher knew that she had to go even further.
Rosenzweig sent James Hansen, her NASA colleague, a note on climate change years before Hansen’s 1988 testimony to Congress. He asked her to increase her computer modeling in order to better understand the potential effects on global crops.
Rosenzweig has been doing this for the better part the past 40 years. NPR’s Rosenzweig tells NPR that her initial climate modeling work was done on a computer. However, her most recent work involves her being on farms all over the globe, working with stakeholders to determine how crops have been affected by climate change and what they can do about it.
She is the founder of “Agricultural Model Intercomparison & Improvement Project”, or “AgMIP,” a multinational team of over 1,000 researchers working on climate modeling, agriculture, and other related topics. Rosenzweig was awarded the World Food Prize for her efforts in helping to recognize and predict the effects of climate change on food systems, and her leadership in finding new solutions to help countries.
Rosenzweig is the head of Climate Impacts Group at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University. She answers a question from a farmer in Nigeria about how to tackle the climate crisis. This interview was edited to be more concise and clear.
Since the 1980s, you’ve been studying climate change and agriculture. What has been the most surprising about your work?
Surprisingly, extreme events are becoming more severe, more prolonged, more frequent and earlier than we expected. This sudden increase in extreme events in agriculture regions all over the world, which began around 2000, has been the surprise.
Did you ever think we would see a reduction of 40% in crop yields by 2030? In 2030?
Or even the 2050s.
Could you please tell me more about the models and how they were designed on your 1980s computer?
There were groups all over the country working on crop models that could answer management questions like “how much fertilizer should I use to help farmers?” These are just a few examples. These models are very useful in answering climate change questions.
These models basically allow you to grow crops in your computer. When you place the seeds, you can specify a planting date. The inputs for daily weather, daily temperature and daily precipitation, as well as solar radiation, and CO2 levels in the atmosphere are also important. My crop modeling colleagues and I then added the equations to account for higher CO2 effects on crops.
Did you know that climate change was the greatest threat to planet food systems?
1994 was the year we conducted our first global study with crop modelers. We were thrilled to see the results from around the globe and began drawing a map of the potential changes in yields due to climate change scenarios.
When we created the map by hand, we noticed that the yellows, oranges, and browns in developing countries at lower latitudes were indicative of lower crop yields. That’s when it became clear that climate change is having the most severe impact on food systems in the developing countries that are located at lower latitudes. It was this “aha” moment that I saw the importance of climate change and the downward pressure on yields, particularly for the poorest farmers.
Northern Nigeria would have been a region that would have experienced the largest drops in crop yields.
It would have been brown, yep.
I am going to share with your a question I received from a Northern Nigeria farmer whom I spoke to yesterday. Nasir Abdullahi. He shared with me the changes he has seen on his farm over the past few years. Not only does he see so much hunger in his area, due to the loss of crops from climate change, but also from the lack of food due to political insecurity with Boko Haram and violence between farmers, herdsmen and ranchers, both of which are also linked with climate change.
We are facing triple threats or quadruple risks, quintuple dangers. We have climate change. This is already happening and will continue to get worse in the future. The COVID pandemic is also looming. Then we have conflict.
Abdullahi already suffered a 30% reduction in his millet crop last season. He claims that the rains arrive late, then stop, then they come back stronger with flooding. He is wondering if there are any solutions.
AgMIP now has an A-team, which stands for the Adaptation Teams. We collaborate with developing countries to ask “Well, what can we do?” Let’s work together to develop and improve agricultural systems that can be used when rain falls. We are looking for drought-tolerant and heat-tolerant crops to recommend.
For example, there is an AgMIP A team in Ghana and West Africa. The team discovered the same results as Abdullahi was seeing. They recommended that the Ghanaian government develop more long-lasting varieties of crops which can adapt to this potential change.
You don’t sound that innovative because I asked a farmer a question. It seems like you are already integrating questions from the ground.
This is what we refer to as stakeholder-driven research. Our AgMIP model toolkit doesn’t allow us to think about the questions we want to answer. We first go into listening mode.
You’re listening to…
It could be aEUR” farmers or planners, or national decision-makers. We listen to them and ask: What would be your favorite topic?
A project is underway in Bangladesh that focuses on sustainable rice production. Participants asked us to include both rice and livestock production in the protocols. We are currently developing models for livestock that can be used to calculate climate impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for the next phase.
It’s not us saying, “You know, we think you have this.” These stakeholder-driven responses are incorporated into our protocols.
It brings back memories of people with “long COVID” sharing their symptoms and insights to scientists, so they can quickly develop research that is more focused on specific questions.
It’s true. It used to be that we did the science, but then we kind of just threw it over the fence. Now, with climate change, it is important to have policy experts along with us. We call it the double-helix of science, policy. We have been saying from the beginning: “Here’s the science.” What policies can be implemented immediately?
It seems like there are many people who think about crop failure and hunger. When they think of all the challenges we face, they feel a sense of immense sadness. This can make people feel immobilized and helpless. You don’t seem to have been immobilized even in 1994. How can you continue to go? What can you do to combat these feelings?
It gives me hope because I have been so lucky in my career to be able to work with people around the globe, my fellow crop models, my amazing climate scientists, and the AgMIP community to help their countries respond climate change aEUR.” It is so exciting to be part of saving the planet.
Because everyone on the planet eats food, that’s why food is so vital. All these opportunities allow you to get involved in solving climate change by working with your food system.
The AgMIP models show that farmers’ practices like no-till or cover crops actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions. AgMIP will be holding a workshop on this topic. It’s very real. What I see is that so many people within the food system are working together to find solutions.
It sounds as if you don’t even think about failure.
I don’t. I don’t. Do you know why? We can’t fail. It must be solved. It is essential that we solve it in order to ensure the health of everyone on the planet.
You were excited right from the beginning.
Yes. [Laughs.] If you’ve been around me for half an hour, then you’ll know that I’m just like that!
Are you able to plan what you will do with $250,000 of prize money?
Well, yes. Although it’s not exactly what I planned, I will donate it all for research on food and climate change. It all.
Julia Simon is a regular contributor for NPR’s podcasts. She focuses on business news, climate change, and energy.