British Prime Minister Boris Johnson survived a confidence vote yesterday by his own party, but the scale of the rebellion – 41% of his lawmakers – has left questions about his ability to lead the country. What are the next potential sticking points for the struggling premier?
Elections will be held on June 23 to fill two vacant seats in parliament. Both were previously occupied by members of Johnson’s Conservative Party forced to resign. Polls show the party could lose at least one to opposition parties.
The defeat, particularly a strong one, could be used by those who want to oust Johnson as evidence that he has lost the trust of the British public and is no longer the vote-winner he was in 2019 when he won a large Conservative majority. Results are expected early June 24.
While British police have concluded their investigation into lockdown-breaking parties at Johnson’s Downing Street offices, for which the prime minister himself has been fined, it is still under investigation by a parliamentary committee.
The Privileges Committee is investigating whether Johnson deliberately misled parliament in his initial responses to reports that the rules had been broken. If the committee finds out that he deliberately misled parliament, he is expected to resign.
The investigation could also lead to public hearings with Johnson and other leading figures, providing a fresh take on an issue that has outraged many who have adhered to strict COVID-19 lockdown rules.
The cost of food and fuel in the UK is rising sharply, stretching the budgets of many households. The effects of this so-called cost-of-living crisis have yet to be felt and living standards are likely to worsen throughout the year, even as the government tries to help the most vulnerable.
Interest rate hikes to control inflation have pushed up mortgages, and further hikes by the Bank of England are likely. Additionally, household energy bills are expected to rise sharply again in October.
Many voters already perceive that the Johnson administration has done too little too late to cushion the blow this year. Failing to address that perception if the crisis worsens could further damage confidence in his leadership ability.
The Conservative Party holds its annual conference between October 2 and 5. The event is used to announce new policies and rally support from rank-and-file members. However, it may also become a focal point for those who fear the party may not win the general election, scheduled for 2024, with Johnson in the lead. This could build momentum for another challenge to the Conservative leader’s leadership before the event so that it can be used as a platform for his replacement to set a new vision.
Conservative Party rules state that Johnson will not be able to face another vote of confidence for another 12 months. However, those rules can be changed by the party committee in charge of leadership contests, if there is the political will to do so.
