The announced turn to the right along the most extreme route in Portugal is being confirmed according to the exit polls broadcast this Sunday by Portuguese television. Conservatives, far-right and liberals would add up to a large majority, mainly the result of the advance of Chega, the party of the racist and xenophobic André Ventura. At the same time, the center-left would lose the hegemony it had maintained since 2015, mainly the result of the disaster of the socialists, who, after the resignation due to a corruption scandal of Prime Minister António Costa, could register a drop of more than ten points. Although the conservative Luís Montenegro is consolidating himself as the favorite to become the next prime minister, because in all the polls he appears in first position and without any possible alternative majority, it still cannot be taken for granted. His advantage over the socialist Pedro Nuno Santos is not large enough to rule out a surprise in the count.
The fear of making a fool of ourselves again gripped Portuguese demoscopy yesterday, after the clamorous failures of the pre-electoral polls of the last five years, such as those of the parliamentary polls two years ago, the municipal polls three years ago and the regional Azores polls in February. . However, in polls like tonight’s, those carried out after school, with much larger samples and covering the entire territory of the country, the errors have been minor. But caution is imposed in a country that has now become a dark tunnel for polls.
In this context of uncertainty, the door is increasingly closing on a reissue of the progressive majority that allowed the socialist António Costa to govern for just over eight years. When the schools in the Azores closed and the televisions broadcast the long-awaited exit polls, Portugal received confirmation, this time in principle more reliable, of its turn to the right, as the conservative Democratic Alliance coalition, the ultra-right Chega and Liberal Initiative appeared above 50% in the average of the survey ranges. From its 7% two years ago, Chega would at least double. The Democratic Alliance, the coalition of the conservative PSD party with the right-wing CDS, would oscillate on its 2022 result.
However, despite even being able to go back with respect to the previous call, the conservatives are on the verge of power, since in the polls Montenegro leads the socialist Santos by between three and five points. The socialist has promised to let him govern, without having to depend on the extreme right. So the path would be clear for him unless in the end Santos is ahead, which occurred with the margin of error in some of the polls. There would arise the very complicated scenario in which Montenegro would have to choose between breaking its word and coming to power at the hands of the ultras or doing what it never explained during the campaign, which would be to let Santos govern or force new elections.
The polls announce that the socialists have been devoured by their unexpected absolute majority in 2022 and now they would fall with a crash, with more than a dozen points, without either the Bloco or the communists recovering either, but with a powerful rise from so far tiny Book by Rui Tavares.
