Why does Trump win in the polls if Biden achieves full employment?
It’s inflation.
Isn’t the US economy booming?
Biden has achieved full employment and rising wages. But it’s inflation, even though it’s already receding, that is punishing Biden despite his brilliant post-pandemic management.
Do people blame it on prices?
Republicans only talk about prices. And it works for them.
Does the voter not see that he lives better now than four years ago?
The average American voter judges their well-being by the price of gas, and it’s cheaper today than the day Biden took the oath of office.
So why doesn’t Biden bounce back?
Because the voter’s feeling, on the other hand, is that everything is very expensive and it is easy to blame Biden, even if he has obtained more jobs and better salaries than Trump. But above all there is fear…
Afraid of what?
Trump is a master at trying to instill fear in the voters of the decisive states, which are the ones that have lost their industries.
How does it create fear?
He usually lets loose a “and now they will come against you” that distresses his entire audience.
who will come
that’s all This white middle class at low hours is afraid of everything: the immigrant who will take away their jobs, technology, feminism, the LGBTI movement, atheists…
But Trump was sued for harassment.
They all remember he was a bully, but they don’t care. They see him as the strong man who will defend them, because they are in danger.
What has changed since Clinton?
In the Clinton campaigns the keys were taxes and subsidies; and, above all, education for everyone.
What are Trump and Biden discussing today?
The whole debate centers on the culture wars: the conservative fear of the woke enemies of religion. And the economy has been reduced to everything is expensive. Foreign policy also hurts Biden: Gaza penalizes him in votes that can be precious.
How do you know?
I’ve been very active – I’m a businessman – in fundraising for Joe Biden’s campaign and I’ve heard this analysis often.
What is Biden’s problem?
What he had, you will remember, was George Bush, the old man, before the young Clinton. Trump is a jerk, but he exudes more grit than Biden and the average American needs that sense of strength…
Because?
Now think of the United States as one big tail of 300 million Americans…
OK: I’m watching it.
…They all work to have a better life, they and their children; but if you are from the big Republican states: Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi…
They have always pulled to the right.
…He’ll think someone is sneaking up on him.
Does being from Texas or Alabama give priority?
That’s what they believe, there. They are supremacists and they see their supremacy threatened and that they, feminism, immigrants, democrats, the colored people of the earth will take priority over them, which is sneaking up on them.
And that Trump will prevent it?
The states of the rust belt think the same: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin… The white working class is afraid that these newcomers will take their jobs and Trump repeats to them every day: “They are coming against me! And then they will go against you!”
Well, it’s scary, yes, and so is he.
And Trump’s message thus reaches this white middle class that was once privileged and now continues to believe it should be.
How are the polls now?
I also have to reassure him because precisely my experience as a democratic activist in ten campaigns is that nothing has been decided yet. Everything can change.
What was the best part of your White House experience with President Clinton?
I was there the first two years of the Clinton presidency and it was exhausting.
He has not done badly in business.
The best thing was to organize for the president those futing sessions with funny and influential people, or with people, nothing more.
I remember it: was it his idea?
Yes, and the best thing I did. Much more than electing high officials. And that back then in Washington we didn’t suffer from today’s aggressive polarization.
What has changed?
Earlier – and I know this because I carried his agenda for two years – President Clinton would have quietly gone to dinner with Trump before Trump became what he is and they would have saved the system. And these talks were common between rivals and made democracy work then and until now. Today I don’t know what can happen.
