Vladimir Putin did not need to ask for a vote yesterday Thursday to achieve re-election in the presidential elections that begin today in Russia. With the real opposition erased from the map and three rivals that should not even be called that, he has long been assured of a crushing victory. But the Kremlin, immersed in the war with Ukraine, broken ties with the West and with the memory of the dead opposition leader Alexei Navalny still very present, is interested in dressing these inconsequential elections with a layer of undoubted legitimacy. That is why the Russian president yesterday asked Russians to go vote in elections that last three days, from March 15 to 17. The objective is not only to win with a large percentage (82% predicts the latest poll), but also to have a high participation so that there is not a shadow of doubt and it seems that it receives the full support of the Russians.
After the constitutional reform of 2020 and the cornering of the opposition, repressed more vigorously during the two years of conflict with Ukraine, the process of Putin’s re-election was presented as a bed of roses for the Russian leader.
The figures of the most rebellious democratic opposition had gone into exile or ended up in jail. Some patriotic nationalists who criticized the way of fighting in Ukraine had followed the same path, such as Igor Guirkin ‘Strelkov’, who even hinted at wanting to run for office.
The candidate selection process did the rest. The Central Election Commission rejected the candidacies of two pro-peace candidates, Yekaterina Duntsova in December and Boris Nadezhdin in February.
The electoral race was then tailor-made for Putin, with three inconsequential rivals, representatives of theoretically opposition parties but who in practice unwaveringly support the Kremlin and are very careful not to upset the power. They all support the military campaign against Ukraine.
The three stone guests are these: Leonid Slutski, leader of the ultranationalist Liberal-Democratic Party; Nikolai Kharitonov, for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation; and Vladislav Davankov, from Gente Nueva, who defines himself as liberal.
But the shadow of doubt, the one that should not appear in these elections for Putin to win with more than the 67.69% he achieved in the last 2018 elections, suddenly appeared on February 16. That day Alexei Navalny died in a penal colony in the Arctic. Officially, of natural cause after taking a walk. His team and his widow Yulia, who are in exile, do not believe it and have directly accused Putin of killing him. Western governments have also blamed Putin, accusations all rejected by the Kremlin.
Be that as it may, Navalny has been in the last decade the only leader of the divided Russian opposition that kept Putin awake, the only one capable of bringing tens of thousands of protesters to the streets with his charisma and direct speech. And after death he continues to do it. Thousands attended his funeral in Moscow, defying the possibility of arrest. In many cities across the country, improvised memorials were erected to honor him. And the memory of him may end up influencing these elections.
Yulia Naválnaya, who has decided to continue the fight, has relaunched a protest initiative proposed by her husband: she asked Russians to vote on March 17 at 12 noon, in order to collapse votes that they consider a “farce” without democratic guarantees .
For the Kremlin, the ideal would be for participation to exceed the 67.54% recorded in the previous 2018 elections and for Putin to emerge victorious with more than 76.69%, the result he obtained then. In addition to the circumstances created with a heavy hand by power, the numbers are in their favor. A poll this week by the Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) predicts a landslide victory with 82% and a turnout of 71%.
In a video message, the head of the Kremlin told Russians yesterday that these elections are “a step towards the future” and their result “will have a direct impact on the development of the country in the coming years.” He asked them to vote, and linked his participation in the election to the military intervention in Ukraine that he ordered just over two years ago. “Participation in elections is a manifestation of patriotic feelings. This is perfectly understood by the inhabitants of Donbass and Novorossiya, who, in the most difficult conditions, voted in referendums for unity with Russia and will also vote these days,” he stressed.
Indeed, Russia will also put the polls in the Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, which in September 2022 it declared annexed although its troops do not fully control them. Ukraine rejects Russia’s holding elections in those areas as illegal and its Foreign Ministry yesterday asked its allies not to recognize the results.
The victory of Vladimir Putin, 71, is a foregone conclusion. Thus, the man who has ruled Russia the longest since the time of Stalin will continue to lead the country for another six years. The reform of the Constitution that he himself promoted in 2020 will allow him to run again in 2030 and be president of Russia until May 2036, when he is 83 years old and has surpassed the mark of the Soviet dictator.
