The Generalitat foresees a general slowdown in the growth of the economy and employment for this 2023. GDP will advance by 1.7% in the year as a whole, three points less than the 4.4% with which it is expected to have closed 2022, according to the table of macroeconomic forecasts that accompanies the budgets presented this Thursday.
Despite the slowdown, there is no danger of a crisis. “The probability is growing that the central scenarios of the latest forecasts are fulfilled, those that estimated a slowdown in activity but not a recession,” he assures. “The range of uncertainty continues, however, to be very high,” it is immediately warned.
The moderation is due to contained household spending (stable at 1.8% increase) and a notable cut in the drive for public administration spending (from 1.3% to 0.5%), while gross capital formation falls from an increase of 6% to 3.6%.
On the commercial side, the slowdown is notable in exports, which will go from growing 16% to 2.8%. Imports, from 10.2% to 3.3%. As a result, the external balance barely contributes one tenth of the expected growth.
On the employment side, the creation of full-time jobs is expected to stop in half, going from a rate of 2.5% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023. Both data are already far from 7 .9% of 2021, the first year of normality after the outbreak of the pandemic.
