The polls published today by various media outlets reflect stability in the vote of the two parties -the PP and the PSOE- that are leading the race towards Moncloa, less than three months before the municipal and regional elections and nine for the generals. The popular ones would win the elections, with a distance of between 3 and 6 points with respect to the PSOE, and could reach an absolute majority if they join Vox, which is losing steam compared to 2019 and the latest polls.
The controversy surrounding the Mediator case, which has a former socialist deputy as one of the protagonists, does not excessively penalize the formation of Pedro Sánchez, which continues in second position as in most recent polls. However, a slightly downward trend is reflected since November and December, when the courts validated the repeal of sedition and the embezzlement reform. The El País survey (40dB) grants 106 seats to the main government party, similar to El Periódico (GESOP), which estimates between 104 and 108 deputies. According to El Mundo (Sigma-Dos), the Socialists would drop to 97 deputies, 25 less than in the 2019 elections.
The PP, although it is far from the lightning effect that the arrival of Alberto Núñez Feijóo had as the party’s presidency, maintains the advantage with Pedro Sánchez compared to the latest polls. The forecast of seats moves in a fork of 122 and 138 and with a cushion of between 3 and 6 points over the PSOE depending on the barometer.
Vox, the third party in Congress, would reduce its representation compared to 2019 and also with recent poll studies. Of the current 52 deputies, it could go down to 44 deputies. Sigma Dos and 40dB gave the extreme right formation between 50 and 52 seats a month ago, so the presentation of the motion of no confidence with Ramón Tamames at the helm would penalize their aspirations to cut ground for the PP.
It’s more; the popular ones (with a high vote fidelity) grow at the expense of Vox and especially Ciudadanos, who could be left out of Congress or with a single representative. The orange refoundation, then, is not obtaining results in the polls.
United We Can, for its part, resists despite the effects of the ‘only yes is yes’ law – one of its star laws of the legislature – and the public disagreements with its government coalition partner. The polls of El País and El Periódico foresee around 30 seats for the purple formation, which still has the unknown of the formula that it will use in future elections and what role Vice President Yolanda Díaz will play. The El Mundo survey, on the other hand, estimates 22 representatives for UP.
In this way, the Popular Party and Vox have options to reach an absolute majority -set at 176 deputies- if they unite, although in neither case would it be comfortably. A reissue of the pact between PSOE and Podemos would have less force than at present and would force the two left-wing parties to maintain the investiture block, despite the fact that the numbers suggest that the sum could remain at the gates of 176 .
Thus, with less than three months to go before the first electoral contests of 2023 that seem key to the final battle, the PP arrives with a certain advantage, but the unpredictability of the subsequent alliances keeps the question of who will be in Moncloa from 2024.
