Ten autonomous communities will have reached pre-pandemic GDP this year, according to estimates by the foundation of savings banks, Funcas. These are Andalusia, the Valencian Community, Madrid, the Basque Country and La Rioja, which will be reaching it over the coming months (Funcas contradicts Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who announced a few days ago that the Madrid economy had already achieved that milestone) and that they will join the regions that have done so in 2022, Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha, Galicia, Murcia and Navarra. On the side of the territories that will have to wait until 2024 to recover the level of activity registered in 2019 are Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Cantabria, Castilla y León and Extremadura.
The Funcas research service forecasts a global slowdown in economic activity in all the autonomous communities as a result of inflation that will still be persistent and that, despite growing to a lesser extent, will still continue to affect the purchasing power of families. The global uncertainty and the rise in interest rates will also have its consequences on the economic situation, Funcas warned this Monday during the presentation of the forecasts of the autonomous communities for 2023, an act that was attended by the general director, Carlos Ocaña, and the Director of Economic and Statistics, Raymond Torres.
Funcas estimates that six autonomies will grow above the national average, estimated by the agency at 1.3%. These are Catalonia, the Community of Madrid, the Canary Islands, Navarra and the Basque Country; and two -Andalusia and Galicia- will do so in line with the average. Tourism and its recovery will be key for the Balearic Islands to register a growth rate that, according to the foundation, will stand at 3.3%. That of the Canary Islands, for its part, situates it at 2.2%.
The positive effect of the European funds will also be beneficial for those territories with a greater presence of the industry of capital goods and advanced services to companies. This is the case of Catalonia, Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Country, which could benefit the most “not because of the territorial distribution of the funds but because of the potential use of these stimuli by the business fabric of the different regions,” Funcas specifies. . The recovery of the automobile sector, in full restructuring, will be important for growth in Castilla y León and the Valencian Community, for their part.
Funcas estimates a decrease in the national unemployment rate this year, a reduction in temporary employment and a global increase in Social Security affiliation. At this point, the study service indicates that unemployment will drop in all the autonomous communities to levels prior to the pandemic, except in Madrid and Navarra, where it was already relatively low. The downward trend in unemployment has been more pronounced in the communities with the highest unemployment, such as Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, so that there has been a convergence for the first time since the outbreak of the financial crisis.
Regarding the specific situation of Catalonia, Funcas foresees a growth of 1.4%, above the national average, after the increase of 5.4% estimated for 2022. “The main impulse will come from services, due to the high weight of the most intensive in knowledge, which is expected to be favored by investments financed by European funds and by the margin of recovery of foreign tourism”, points out the ‘think tank’.
Unemployment in Catalonia will stand at 9.3% in 2023, one of the best records in the country. The inflation rate in Catalonia was 8% in 2022, four tenths less than the average, due to the lower price increase in food and services.
