Emmanuel Macron multiplied the meetings yesterday in search of a way out of the serious political and social crisis triggered by the approval by decree of the controversial pension reform. The French president urgently needs to calm down the street, where an explosive climate reigns, and retake the initiative to prevent the rest of his term – until May 2027 – from being four years of tension and sterile paralysis.
Of the meetings held with his political allies, with several key ministers and with the parliamentary group of his party, Renacimiento, it only transpired that the head of state does not intend to take drastic measures, at least for now. “Neither dissolution (of the National Assembly), nor reshuffle (of the Government) nor referendum,” said one of the participants. Today more must be known, through the mouth of Macron himself. He has decided to be interviewed on the 1:00 p.m. newscast. It is an unusual schedule in him. It has the advantage that among the audience, of a high average age, the percentage of its voters is higher. A message at noon allows a prolonged media impact.
Macron does not consider that the defeat of a motion of no confidence by only nine votes, the day before yesterday, was a failure of the Government. But that is how it has been interpreted, because it highlights the weakness and isolation of Elysium. Under these conditions, it will be very difficult to carry out any new transformation project, be it in the field of institutions or immigration laws. The president would need stable allies. They can only be Los Republicanos (LR, traditional right), but they are very divided, on the verge of splitting. Almost a third of them voted for the motion of no confidence, against the order given by the party leadership.
It is not easy for Macron to unite his own troops either. The representatives of Renacimiento and allied groups face dissatisfied voters, have suffered harassment and intimidation. And the worst thing is that the reform was never voted on and was approved thanks to an exceptional constitutional procedure, totally legal and often used before, but this time, given the circumstances, it stripped the reform of democratic legitimacy.
A failed second term for Macron would create a propitious scenario for the growth of the extreme right. Since the president was re-elected and, especially, since his supporters were left in a minority in the National Assembly, there is talk in Paris of the fear of Macron and his collaborators to pave the way for a victory for Marine Le Pen in 2027. It’s a long-term concern, but it’s real. Macron would not want for the world that his legacy be overshadowed for having indirectly opened the door of power to the extreme right. The example of Barack Obama in the United States. His eight years in the White House led to the triumph of Donald Trump. That precedent is worrying.
Nothing indicates that calm will quickly return to a historically eruptive country, with an irrepressible tendency to periodic street riots. The last few nights have been violent in many cities, with burning garbage barricades and clashes with riot police. The students, until now not very active, have participated in the demonstrations called at the last moment.
The sociologist Michel Wieviorka has said that “a May ’68 in reverse” could be brewing; that is to say, a revolt initiated by the unions and later seconded by the students, contrary to what happened 55 years ago. The unions keep up the pressure, with blockades of public roads and refineries, selective power cuts and other actions. The Paris garbage collectors decided to extend their strike until next Monday. Although minimal services have been activated by force, they are insufficient to bring down the mountains of accumulated waste. Another day of national struggle is called for tomorrow that will affect transportation. Macron will address the country hours before. It is doubtful that his words will demobilize people.
