At the end of February, the president of Tunisia, Kaïs Saïed, opened Pandora’s box and directed the demons towards the weakest. The Tunisian leader denounced the “violence, crime and unacceptable practices” caused by the “hordes of illegal immigrants” and accused them of being part of a “criminal plan designed since the beginning of the century to alter the demographic composition of Tunisia and turn it into an African country without ties to the Arab and Islamic world”.

His words, which echoed the theories of the global extreme right about a supposed “Great Replacement”, provoked a witch hunt among the 21,000 sub-Saharans who live in the smallest country in the Maghreb. Hundreds of black people were assaulted or arrested and several embassies repatriated some of their citizens. Although weeks later Saïed himself denied that his words were racist, he called sub-Saharans “African brothers” and announced measures to alleviate the damage; according to analysts, the persecution of the weak migratory link is not accidental and illustrates Tunisia’s anti-democratic decline.

For Ines Al-Jaibi, Tunisian lawyer and activist, the situation is worrying. “We are at the most critical moment for Tunisian democracy in recent years – he explains to this newspaper -; Tunisia’s democracy has experienced a high risk, but now we are facing a moment of critical deterioration, in imminent risk. For the researcher, the setback is obvious. “Right now we cannot call Tunisia a democratic country. We have not had a military coup, but today there is only one power in the hands of the president who commands unilaterally. If nothing changes, Tunisian democracy may be demolished. There are politicians persecuted by justice, attacks on freedom of expression, a Government unable to resolve the deterioration of the economic situation…”.

For Al-Jaibi, the beginning of the collapse happened two years ago. After being elected in 2019, President Saïed committed suicide in 2021, when he took advantage of the covid pandemic to dismantle democratic guarantees and gather almost total power in his hands. Since then, Saïed has gone on the attack with a verbal violence reminiscent of the one used now against migrants. In addition to calling opponents, activists or trade unionists “enemies”, “criminals”, “terrorists” or “traitors”, he has multiplied the arrests of critics.

The analyst Monica Marks launched a frosty warning in The Continent a few days ago. “The witch hunt against politicians or against migrants are two sides of the same coin: a new, dangerous and highly destabilizing dictatorship is being consolidated in Tunisia”.

Heba Moraief, director of Amnesty International for North Africa, was also forceful. “The president must stop looking for scapegoats for his economic and political problems.”

The crux of the matter is empty pockets. Since the Arab Spring that toppled authoritarian President Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali in 2011, the country has spiraled into instability that has punished state coffers, heavily dependent on tourism, which further froze due to several terrorist attacks. The impact on the economy of the pandemic, which again emptied hotels, and the war in Ukraine, which has sent food and fuel prices soaring, have left many Tunisians in a desperate situation.

The recent rampage against immigrants also draws from a historical resentment, added to racism, between Tunisians and sub-Saharan foreigners, which seeks political profit. In an analysis for Al-Jazeera, the Tunisian academic Haythem Guesmi said: “(Saïed) knew that his attacks on black migrants would resonate with the authoritarian, fascist and racist tendencies of his followers. It has realized that immoral targeting of a vulnerable minority would intimidate its opponents and give the regime more room to exercise its power and demonstrate its authority.”