If there were parliamentary elections today, a scenario that after the approval of the Generalitat’s budget a few weeks ago is very unlikely, the PSC, which was already the first force by a narrow margin in 2021, would win again and consolidate its advantage as the first force, with a range of between 34 and 40 seats, compared to the 33 it now has, according to the barometer of the Center d’Estudis d’Opinió that was made public this Wednesday.
Esquerra Republicana, which holds the presidency of the Generalitat, would be the second force and would obtain between 29 and 34 seats, a result similar to that obtained two years ago. Junts per Catalunya, for its part, which in the previous barometer had suffered a significant drop after the breakdown of the Catalan Executive, recovers part of the ground lost in the previous survey and would reap between 22 and 28 seats.
In the previous barometer, made public in November, the Socialists moved in a range of between 35 and 41 deputies, the Republicans were better than now with between 30 and 36 deputies and JxCat had lagged behind with a range of between 19 and 24 deputies. . These three parties obtained very similar results in the last regional elections.
For the rest, the poll of the institution that depends on the Catalan administration predicts that Ciudadanos could be left out of the Catalan Chamber, as an extra-parliamentary formation, and the main beneficiary would be the PP, which would be placed as the fourth force with between 8 and 12 seats , for the three he has now. For the oranges, who today have six representatives, the poll gives them between 0 and 5 parliamentarians, a better figure than the last poll. Vox, which is now the fourth force in the Chamber with 11 seats, would maintain similar figures, with between 7 and 10 deputies.
However, compared to the previous barometer, the popular Catalans lose strength, since they moved in a higher fork, with between 11 and 16 deputies.
Also the CUP, which has disregarded the stability of Pere Aragonès’ Executive, and En Comú Podem, parliamentary partner of the Republicans to approve the Catalan budgets in recent years, have signs of improving with between 8 and 12 seats, and between 7 and 12 in the case of commons. The anti-capitalists now have 9 representatives and the purple ones with 8.
The poll, with less than a year to go before the next general elections, also includes an estimate of seats in the Congress of Deputies and in this case the PSC would be the first force, in a tie situation with ERC, which in the 2019 was the party with the most votes. The Catalan socialists move in a range of between 12 and 15 deputies, for the 12 they now have, and Esquerra in one of between 11 and 15, for the current 13.
In Comú Podem, in this case, it would be the third force with between 4 and 8 seats, compared to 7 now, and JxCat would be the fourth in dispute with between 5 and 7 deputies, compared to the 8 it currently has. However, in 2019, JxCat presented itself hand in hand with PDECat and in 2020 the split took place. The PP would also improve in the Lower House and could have between 2 and 5 seats for the 2 now and Vox would move in a range of between 1 and 4 for the two now. The CUP, which has 2 parliamentarians in this legislature, could go on to have between 1 and 4 and Cs could remain strong, with between 0 and 1 deputies for the 2 it currently has.
All the Catalan political leaders for whom the survey asks fail in the evaluations section. The person in the best position is the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, with a 4.9 grade. Aragonès, for his part, remains at 4.5 and is ahead of the leader of the commons in Madrid and president of the United Podemos confederal group, Jaume Asens, with 4.6, and tied with the leader of the confluence in the Catalan Chamber, Jéssica Albiach.
The head of the opposition, Salvador Illa, remains at 4.2 and the president of Junts per Catalunya, recently sentenced by the Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia, obtains a 3.7 rating, behind other leaders such as Eulà lia Reguant of the CUP (4.4), the also anti-capitalist Dolors Sabater (4.4), the Minister of Culture, the socialist Miquel Iceta (4) and the former president Carles Puigdemont (4). The worst valued are the leader of the Catalan PP, Alejandro Fernández (2.5), his party partner Lorena Roldán (2.4), the orange leader in Madrid, Inés Arirmadas (2.3), the head of Cs in Catalonia , Carlos Carrizosa (2), and the general secretary of Vox, Ignacio Garriga (1.9).
If we look at the evaluation of the leaders made by the electorate itself, the best positioned is Puigdemont, with a score of 7.7. Among his team, Junqueras scores a 6.8 and Borràs follows behind with a 6.1. In this section all the leaders approve except Garriga, from Vox, and Roldán, from the PP.
In the question about relations between Catalonia and Spain and what would be voted for in an independence referendum, 50% would be against and 43% in favor, numbers that remain more or less stable in the latest polls.
The field work for this first barometer of the CEO’s year was carried out between February 27 and March 24 with a sample of 2,000 people, with personal surveys at homes.
