The intelligence services of the first power scored a decisive point in the previous weeks and first days of the war in Ukraine. Faced with widespread skepticism, the United States reaffirmed itself as the world espionage champion by demonstrating the veracity and precision of its persistent reports on Russian troop movements in preparation for the offensive, as well as on the various traps used by Vladimir Putin’s services to simulate Ukrainian attacks that would justify the invasion.
Now, a year after that success, the US intelligence apparatus is in check as it hasn’t been since the massive data leak via WikiLeaks a decade ago. The publication on the Internet of dozens of images and documents marked as “secret” or “top secret” that appeared in recent days on Twitter and Telegram, but were already spread at the beginning of March and almost unnoticed on the game messaging platform Discord and on the 4chan forum, has created “panic” in the Pentagon, The Washington Post reported after The New York Times revealed the leak on Thursday. Added to this fear is the concern and astonishment that some US allies are beginning to confess.
It is about countless data and military assessments about the war, as well as relevant information about Washington’s supposed strategy and methods not only to penetrate Russian espionage, but to monitor Ukraine and certain allies. The records also refer to Western tensions with China and the conflict in the Middle East.
The Department of Justice confirmed yesterday the opening of an investigation that comes to add to those opened in the first instance by the Department of Defense, the FBI and the CIA. The Pentagon, by order of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, was the first to begin reviewing the records on the assumption that they “appear to contain highly classified and sensitive material.” A senior official quoted by the Times defined the incident as “a nightmare”; another, as “massive intelligence gap.” The White House declined to comment in detail on the matter and advised against engaging in “speculation” until the investigations are concluded.
Although some reports had already been shared with allies, and therefore it is difficult to locate the origin of their leak, in Washington there is fear of the action of a mole from within the device itself. “The focus is on this being an American leak, as many of the documents were only in the hands of the US,” Michael Mulroy, a former Pentagon manager, told Reuters.
The investigators do not rule out that pro-Russian elements are behind it. But his intervention in the leaking process is rather associated with a certain version of part of the papers, on Telegram, which minimizes the casualties of Putin’s army.
The leak could weaken Ukraine by revealing what Washington and NATO know about the activity of the Russian army, its plans, capabilities and limitations in the war, as well as the situation, forecasts and possibilities of the invaded country itself.
The records include maps of Ukrainian air defense resources. And they paint a bleak picture in which protection resources against Russian fighter jets will run out by early May.
Another document recounts a hitherto unknown “near miss†in which a Russian plane nearly shot down a British surveillance aircraft on September 29 off the Crimean coast. The demolition could have led to the entry of NATO into the armed conflict.
The records put on the table alleged secret plans for South Korea to deliver 330,000 rounds of ammunition essential for Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive: a supply that would be funneled through the US or Poland in contravention of Seoul’s rules against assistance to a country at war by aid of a lethal nature.
Some of the documents refer to Israel in very compromising terms. One is titled “Israel: Ways to Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine” and states that Jerusalem “will likely consider providing” such aid “under further US pressure or a downgrade of its relationship with Russia.” Another paper, attributed to the CIA, indicates that the Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad, was encouraging the protests against the new government of the country. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly denied this on Sunday.
All the prestige recovered by US espionage at the start of the war is now in question. Pending investigations to determine the veracity and scope of the leak, right now the intelligence of the superpower seems as impervious as a sieve.
