Easter has represented a pause of truce for the political parties in the face of the momentous elections of 28-M. In little more than a month the electoral campaign itself must begin, but for the majority of the party machinery you can say that this started yesterday after the holiday relaxation. It was the day chosen by the president of Madrid, Isabel DÃaz Ayuso, to make one of her main electoral promises: the reduction of another half point in all sections of the personal income tax, which is added to the one already will apply from this year. From today until May 28, all the formations are immersed in the electoral battle.
It is perhaps a good time to dare to make a forecast and a first observation is that the forces seem much more equal between socialists and popular than was predicted a few months ago when the PP obtained an absolute majority in Andalusia with a great result by Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla. Two factors have influenced it: the resilience of Pedro Sánchez with better than expected economic data and, on the other hand, the difficulty of Alberto Núñez Feijóo to articulate a convincing alternative speech from the opposition. In this case, it has always happened like this and the same thing happened to José MarÃa Aznar and Mariano Rajoy, before they managed to win, and also to Pablo Casado. Fighting from the party against the machinery of an entire government is not at all easy. Feijóo, moreover, is not in the Congress of Deputies, and this makes it difficult for him to get his message across. If, by the way, he makes some unforced errors, as we discussed in this section, everything is more difficult.
However, the 28-M who has the most power to lose is the one who has accumulated the most power. And the PSOE governs in many communities that are at stake: the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands, Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, Asturias, the Canary Islands, Navarre and La Rioja. To manage to maintain the presidency in all of them seems almost a miracle. On the other hand, the PP only controls Madrid and Murcia – in relation to the communities that are being voted on now -, so if it recovers any of the previous ones it will be able to sell the 28-M as a great success. The PSOE can aspire to recover some large capital but it will not be easy at all. The PSOE plays much more this 28-M.
