The month of April 2023 is on track to become the driest in Spain since there are records, since during its first 16 days 5 liters per square meter have accumulated throughout Spain, an “extraordinarily low” figure for this period that it represents “only” 15 percent of the monthly average, which is 63.5 liters per square meter, as reported by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
“With a high probability this month we will surely not reach this average”, has predicted the spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Rubén del Campo, who does not see the possibility that with the current forecasts the month of April 2023 ends up being “the driest in the historical series, since 1961”. Since then, the record has been held by the month of April 1995, when 23 liters per square meter were collected.
However, a front could move from west to east and cause increased instability, with possible rain and showers in Spain this Friday and Saturday. In any case, it specifies that it will not be an episode of abundant or persistent rainfall, but “at least it is possible that it rains in many areas where it has not rained for more than a month”, such as in Madrid, where not a drop falls since last March 8.
The passage of this front will cause a “notable but temporary” drop in temperatures and after the front the high pressures will once again dominate over Spain and the rains will once again be scarce. It is possible that the arrival of high pressure will be accompanied by a mass of warm air and “very high temperatures for the time”, which could exceed 30 degrees Celsius, not only in the south of the Peninsula but also in the north. and even 33 or 34 degrees in points in the south of the Peninsula.
The spokesman specifies that this Thursday will be stable weather but the evolution clouds will grow, which could leave some stormy showers in the Pyrenees and cannot be ruled out in other mountain areas, especially in the northeast of the peninsula.
Temperatures will rise, especially in the eastern third of the peninsula, where they will exceed 25ºC in large areas of the territory, including 30ºC in the interior of the Valencian Community and the Guadalquivir Valley. “It will be a clearly warmer day than normal for the season,” Del Campo stresses, indicating that the temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius higher than the average and the nocturnal ones will be more typical of the month of April, so there will be a notable temperature difference between dawn and noon. “There will be a lot of layers to put on at first and take them off later,” he says.
Regarding Friday, the spokesperson does not expect major changes in temperatures, although they will drop somewhat in Catalonia and in western Andalusia, since a warm environment will continue for the season, with temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius above average.
That day the arrival of the cold front will begin to be noticed and the skies will be cloudy and there will be showers in Galicia and Asturias. In the rest of the Peninsula, clouds of evolution will grow from midday that may give rise to showers locally accompanied by storms and that will be more likely in the northeast of the Peninsula and it does not rule out that they affect other areas of the peninsular interior, especially both Thursday and Friday.
In this context, Del Campo warns that the risk of fires will be very high in many areas of the Peninsula. On Saturday, the front will cross the Peninsula and, in its wake, there will be rain and showers that, after the front passes, will be clear again. The rains will affect large areas of the territory, although in general it will not be very abundant rainfall. It is unlikely that 10 liters per square meter of rain will be exceeded, except in points in Galicia and around the Pyrenees.
In this area the rainfall will be somewhat more abundant and, furthermore, in the surroundings of the Pyrenees north of Navarra, north of Aragon and north of Catalonia these rainfalls could be accompanied by storms.
On Saturday, a notable drop in temperatures is expected in almost the entire country, which in the north and east may be more than six to eight degrees compared to the previous day, so the thermometer will be at values ​​more typical for the season, since that they will only exceed 25ºC in the Guadalquivir valley and in very isolated points in the eastern part of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands.
On Sunday, after the passage of the front, high pressures will continue to prevail and there will still be traces of instability in the extreme north, where showers will occur in parts of Galicia, Cantabria, the northeast and the Balearic Islands, although they will tend to subside. The minimums will be fresh that day but they will begin to ascend.
That day, the temperatures will be very high for the season and it will exceed 25ºC in parts of the northeast and in large areas of Extremadura and inland Andalusia. On Monday it will exceed 25ºC in most of the country and it is not ruled out that it will exceed 32ºC in the Guadalquivir valley.
Therefore, from Monday to Wednesday the temperatures will be at least 5 degrees Celsius higher than the normal average in most of the territory and it does not rule out that in the southern third of the Peninsula they will reach 33 or 34ºC as of Tuesday and 30ºC in the center and in the north. “If the forecast for this episode is confirmed, it will certainly be unusually warm for the time,” he warns.
On the Canary Islands, it is expected that in the coming days clouds of evolution will grow throughout the day, without ruling out that they stop some rain, especially on the northern and western slopes of the islands with the highest relief. From Saturday or Sunday the trade winds will begin to blow, with clouds in the north of the most mountainous islands and some drizzle there and rising temperatures.
