Energetic and decisive, one of the few women in the room when decisions are made at European level, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is used to being called “too Baltic” or “a warmonger ” for his full support of Ukraine in the face of Russia and his calls for the rearmament of Europe. He is not, he points out, nor does he know anyone in Estonia or Ukraine who wants war, on the contrary.
“We want peace, but a peaceful one. And a peace according to Russia’s terms will not be, because “after a few years of pause, the aggressor will go further”. The weakness “provokes” the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, which is why he advocates investing more in defense and, despite being liberal, has raised taxes in his country, which already devotes 3% of its GDP to military spending. “The leaders of countries with better neighbors than Estonia have problems explaining this to public opinion because in times of peace there are much better places to put the money”, but “it cannot happen to us like with the pandemic”. warns “Because the problem with defense is that, when you need it, it’s too late,” he warns.
“I am explaining to my country why we have to raise taxes. I am a member of the Liberal Party and I know I am committing political suicide, but I have no choice. I know that if things get worse, in a few years the Estonians will say that maybe they should have paid ten euros more a month in taxes to have avoided this”, explains Kallas in an interview with several European media at the headquarters of the Estonia’s embassy to the EU, on the facade of which waves, next to the flag of the Baltic country, the Ukrainian flag.
What risk does Russia pose to Estonia?
The same as for their countries. We are together in NATO and there are no first class and second class countries. An attack against one is an attack against all. Europe is a small continent. If you compare to WWII, Poland didn’t last as long as Ukraine now. If it falls, the war will spread to all of Europe. We need to help Ukraine so that we don’t have to talk about who will go after it because if it is defeated, we will have a break for a few years and then we will see the same thing on a large scale, especially if we do not invest in defense. It must not be forgotten that Russia is afraid of going to war with NATO. They don’t want it, and neither do we. But you need to understand not only what they don’t want, but what they fear. If we don’t invest enough in defense now, they won’t be afraid.
What do you think of Russia’s renewed nuclear rhetoric? Is it a real threat or an attempt to intimidate the West?
It’s nothing new, they’ve been saying it for a long time. They want to intimidate us, make us afraid, and in some countries it works. If you look at the destruction that Russia has caused in Ukraine it is greater than what a nuclear weapon would cause, it has wiped out entire cities, like Mariupol. I can’t say for sure that Putin won’t use the nuclear weapon because he’s a madman and can do anything, but I think his main goal is to scare us. And if there is one thing they are very good at, it is sowing fear in our societies, with tailor-made strategies for each country.
What is the purpose of rearmament, to deliver weapons to Ukraine or to prepare for war?
Both of us. One goal is to supply material to Ukraine, and the other, to replenish our arsenals, to invest more in our collective defense.
How can we do this and at the same time avoid that third world war?
The way to avoid a third war is for Russia to lose this war, so we don’t have to worry about it. But if Russia expands its territory and nothing happens to it, we would have a very serious problem. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes and we have many lessons to learn about how to deal with abusers.
Emmanuel Macron has spoken about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. Was it fine with him, as part of a necessary strategic ambiguity, or does he regret that it is a divisive issue for allies?
We’ve been wondering what Russia will do next for a long time, it’s good that they’re the ones wondering what we’re going to do. Because, why be so clear?, why confirm to Russia that we will do one thing or another? We don’t have to do it for nothing. They fear going to war with Europe, which is why strategic ambiguity is good at the moment. There was no talk of putting boots on the ground, but in my Parliament I was asked if I could rule out that Estonian soldiers should go to Ukraine and I said no, because Putin needs that confirmation, no one else. In my country it is the Parliament that decides on the sending of troops.
Does he think Europe is aware of the existential risk it runs if Ukraine is defeated? Do you see the political will to act?
It depends on the countries. How many NATO members invest more than 2% of their GDP in defense? When the war started in 2022, I was sure that the allies would increase their military spending because the threat had become real, but to my surprise this did not happen. Many promises were made, but if you read the fine print of some, they said they would spend 2% in 2030 [this is the case in Germany]. In 1988, during the Cold War, all countries spent more than 2% on defense, some even more than 6%. Because? Because the threat was real, there was a cold war. Now we have a hot war and yet some countries don’t. I don’t see facts, only words.
How can Europe prepare for a potential Donald Trump victory and what do you think will happen to NATO?
The simplest way is to increase defense spending and do more for our own security. The president of the United States cannot leave NATO without more or less, they have approved clauses to prevent it, but he is the one who decides and it may happen that troops are needed and he says that he does not participate. We must be prepared for this. But when Trump became president, NATO countries started spending more on defense. Slowly, but they started.
