The Euribor will not rise much more, but it will continue to make the most difficult mortgagees sleepless for an as yet undetermined time. After its explosive take-off from April last year, the index is already very close to touching the ceiling and, according to analysts, it could start to fall at the end of the year, although in a way very subtle and without significantly easing the pressure it already exerts on millions of families. This is the forecast of the experts consulted by La Vanguardia, who are taking preventive measures: this is what will happen if the ship of the economy does not suffer turbulence.

The guideline is marked by the policy of the ECB, which after raising interest rates to 3.5% decided this week to soften the rate of increase and add 0.25 points to the price of money, up to 3. 75% Christine Lagarde did not announce new hikes with the forcefulness of other occasions, although analysts expect the next moves to be of the same intensity, to levels of 4% or 4.25%. From this point on, declines would become probable, inflation permitting.

“The Euribor already reflects the expectations of how far the ECB can go and I don’t think it will rise much more than the current 3.84%”, predicts Natalia Aguirre, from Renta4. “We are close to the ceiling despite inflation of 7% in the euro zone and it should remain at these levels unless the scenario changes a lot.” The mortgage reference index reached a maximum of 3.97% in January and for a few days, in the midst of the Credit Suisse crisis, it fell to 3.3%.

All these percentages can greatly complicate the life of a mortgagee. According to the simulator of the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE), an average loan of 150,000 euros for 25 years with a differential of 1% has gone from having a fee of 565 euros a month a year ago to 855 euros if the average April Euribor applies. It’s almost 300 euros more. The Bank of Spain estimates that, by now, the vast majority of mortgages have been reviewed, although the worst is yet to come.

“The game now is like blackjack: if you pass, you lose,” says economist José Carlos Díez to describe the risks of an overly aggressive monetary policy by the ECB, especially with regard to mortgagees. “I think we are at the ceiling and will be at levels of 4% for a long period”, he says, referring to interest rates. The factors that “caused the inflation shock last year”, such as gas or oil, “are normalizing”. “I understand, however, that the ECB must maintain a tough speech because the guard must not be lowered.”

The association of financial users Asufin has good news and bad news for mortgagees. The good thing is that “the limit of the Euribor will be reached around the month of June, to continue at these levels until the last quarter of the year, when we could already witness the lowering of the index” . The bad thing is that now comes what is known as the “double round hikes”: “This is when the big hikes in mortgage reviews will occur.”

The calculation that the mortgagor must assume is that for every 100,000 euros of loan he will have to face an increase of 2,000 euros in the annual fee. The first half-yearly reviews only collected part of the increase, and from now on the moment of truth arrives, with a message for the Government. It will be seen “if the measures of the code of good banking practices are sufficient”, says Asufin.

The Stability Plan until 2026 sent this week by the Government in Brussels predicts that the Euribor will start to fall this year and that it will do so a little more in 2024. The document also figures at 70% the percentage of mortgages of variable rate, despite the fact that, of the new ones that are signed, 70% are of fixed rate.

Another effect of the interest rate hikes already reported by the ECB and the banks themselves is the drop in demand for mortgage loans. “The path of interest rate hikes has somehow managed to slow down the economy by way of demand, and proof of this is the reduction in mortgage credit”, they also indicate from Accuracy. This circumstance can contribute to falls in house prices, a trend that analysts already consider very likely and that firms such as Singular Bank dare to quantify. His forecast consists of a 6% drop in property prices.

Ombretta Signori, head of strategy at Ofi Invest AM, assumes that the ECB’s interest rates will not rise above 4.25%, which also puts a stop to Euribor rises, but warns that inflation in services “closely linked to salary dynamics” must still be combated. “It will probably be the last component to go down.” At DWS they also agree with this forecast and paraphrase Lagarde to predict some new rise: “We haven’t got there yet”.

At the moment, the banks do not report an increase in bank arrears, although the Government does not lower its guard and continues to analyze possible additional measures to the code of good practices already agreed with the entities.