With the absolute majority of the socialist Emiliano GarcÃa-Page threatened, and with it his re-election as head of the autonomous government, Castilla-La Mancha is shaping up to be another of the tightest electoral battles between the PSOE and PP.
It is a socialist fiefdom, which in 40 years of autonomy only the then general secretary of the PP, MarÃa Dolores de Cospedal, managed to challenge in a single legislature, in 2011-2015. Twelve years later, the popular ones aspire to assault the bastion again, although the best scenario that the polls show them is a coalition with Vox.
Castilla-La Mancha has the smallest parliament of the multiprovincial communities, after Cospedal reduced the number of deputies from 49 to 33, divided into five constituencies, which makes it difficult for minority parties to have representation. More than three formations have never entered.
The game of alliances is narrow. GarcÃa-Page governed in a minority the first half of his first term (2015-2017) and with Podemos the second (2017-2019), an option that he never hid that he disliked. In 2019 he achieved an absolute majority, while Podemos stayed out of the Cortes and Ciudadanos entered. Now these leave and Vox enters. Almost no poll gives representation to Podemos.
Without partners to agree, GarcÃa-Page needs to revalidate the absolute majority. That is why his campaign appeals to the useful vote, left and right. He stands as the only alternative for the region not to follow the path of the other Castilla, with a PP-Vox government.
The Castilian-La Mancha president is both a prop and a stone in the shoe for Pedro Sánchez. Along with Javier Lambán from Aragon, he has been the baron most critical of the coalition government with Podemos, on account of the law of only yes is yes, the pardons for the pro-independence leaders, the reform of sedition and embezzlement or the pacts with Bildu.
GarcÃa-Page brandishes the banner of a La Mancha-style socialism, forged by former president José Bono (1983-2004) and which has allowed the PSOE to control the political space that regionalist forces have occupied in other areas. A conservative socialism, which connects with the feeling of a region where agriculture is the economic engine and is where the most taxpayers (44.2%) check the box of the Church in personal income tax.
This explains why Castilla-La Mancha has traditionally had a dual vote, more conservative in general elections than in regional elections. In 2019, Page’s PSOE obtained 44.1% of the vote in May, which was reduced to 33.4% for Sánchez’s PSOE in November.
“Emiliano has shown that he has no problem facing the national leadership if it is necessary to defend the interests of Castilla-La Mancha. The PP and Vox candidates cannot say it â€, they cry out from their campaign.
One of GarcÃa-Page’s successes has been the approval by the national government of a Hydrological Plan for the Tagus that increases the ecological flow of the river and reduces the water that is transferred to Valencia, Murcia and Andalusia. It was a historic demand from Castilla-La Mancha, more pressing with the drought, and it has triggered tension with those governments, including that of the Valencian socialist Ximo Puig.
Not at home everything is applause either. The Platform in Defense of the Tagus sees the fixed flow as insufficient, while agricultural lobbies criticize that the water for the Castilian-La Mancha countryside will also be reduced. “Page shows a lot of chest but the only beneficiaries are the Portuguese farmers, who will be the ones who will irrigate with the water from the Tagus”, launch sources from the regional PP. They also maintain that GarcÃa-Page’s opposition to Sánchez is “lip service”: when the PP has brought the law of consent or the reform of the penal code to the regional courts, it has aligned itself with their party.
The popular candidate, Paco Núnez, has had to deal with a complaint for the alleged irregular collection of allowances for travel as a deputy for not notifying a change of residence. The PP accuses the Socialists of making a scandal out of an “administrative error” and of using the institutions in a partisan manner. Núñez has returned the 16,000 euros, but he has had to deposit the money into an account of the autonomous government because the Cortes did not provide him with his own account.
Núñez’s campaign bus not only carries his photo, but also those of the PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the Madrid president, Isabel DÃaz Ayuso, and the Andalusian, Juan Manuel Moreno. Madrid and Andalusia are the models brandished by Núñez, who promises the same tax cuts and a “development axis” with neighboring communities to attract European companies and funds.
GarcÃa-Page brandishes his service sheet. It is the community in Spain where unemployment has fallen the most since 2019, a reduction of almost 17%, although the rate remains above the national average. The Socialists also boast of their investments in health and education, after the “wild cuts” by Cospedal.
The PP has a story problem, considers the professor at the University of Castilla-La Mancha and political consultant Jesús Gutiérrez Villalta. “In 2011 Cospedal won because he managed to escalate the national debate as the main argument of the electoral narrative. This coupled with the fact that there was a rampant economic crisis. Now the PP has it much more difficultâ€.
“In the fundamental and ideological lines, let’s say at the state level, the PSOE and the PP in Castilla-La Mancha do not have great differences. Where these are clearly expressed is when we descend into the territory. There the PP remains blurred, without a story â€.
The PSOE has managed to establish itself as the backbone of a certain territorial identity, in a community that is not historical but an administrative construction product of the Transition and brings together very different realities, from dormitory cities in Madrid such as Guadalajara to depopulated agricultural areas. “For starters, we are the only community that has a hyphen in the middle. If the province effect has weight in all of them, here moreâ€, says the professor.
There is also the effect of capitality. The region has had to build its identity in the shadow of Madrid. “For many years, the province with the most people born in Castilla-La Mancha was not any of the Castilian-La Mancha provinces, it was Madrid.” Things are changing. If before there was emigration to the towns to the south of Madrid, today, thanks to communications (all the provincial capitals have AVE), there are 300,000 people who commute to Madrid daily to work. “This is a phenomenon that logically does not help much to the development and growth of this region,” reflects the professor. And third element: “We are a land through which you pass, and that has made many people consider us more of a landscape than a destination.”