More than a century after the Irish revolution (independence, civil war and partition), Ireland is moving towards a more peaceful and political one: the inexorable advance of Sinn Féin despite having been an arm of the IRA and their responsibility in the armed struggle, and the emergence of an extreme right-wing anti-immigration movement.
The impotence to manage this change of ground, together with the Government’s defeat in the referendums on the role of women in society and the concept of family, have led the Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, to unexpectedly throw in the towel.
Varadkar was a pioneer in many ways and a symbol of the changes in Irish society with the loss of influence of the Catholic Church (the youngest Taoiseach, the first openly gay and of an Indian father, who played a leading role in decriminalization of abortion and green light to same-sex marriages). But cycles are running out faster and faster in politics everywhere, and he has acknowledged that his time has passed.
With local and European elections in June, and general next year (if they are not anticipated), Varadkar has studied where the wind was coming from, and has verified that the chances of carrying his party (Fine Gael, centre-right) in victory they were very remote. The latest polls put the intention to vote for Sinn Féin at 30%, well above any rival. He already won the previous elections, and only a tripartite of the establishment parties plus the Greens prevented him from taking the reins of government in Dublin. The repetition of this maneuver is not impossible, but a clear victory at the polls would make it very complicated.
The former political arm of the IRA, which is already the most voted party in Ulster and has appointed the province’s first minister (Michelle O’Neill), is aiming to achieve the same in the Republic and end the monopoly history of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, two centrist parties (the former slightly more to the left) rivals not so much because of ideology but because of the links of each with the two fathers of the country, Éamonn de Valera and Michael Collins.
Ireland has never had a strong left, in the style of that of other European countries, with Labor reduced to the role of an accomplice. But Sinn Féin has become popular among the working classes with an anti-establishment nationalist populism and a promise to build social housing (the prices of both buying and renting flats have become prohibitive, at the level of London and New York ) and egalitarian policies.
Traditionally a pro-immigration party (Ireland has been a country of immigrants), it remains to be seen how the growing hostility towards foreigners, and the emergence of an increasingly well-organized extreme right, affects Sinn Féin, if it makes it change direction or it costs him a political price.
Since protests against hotels housing refugees began, his approval rating has dropped from 36% to 30%, but he still enjoys a clear lead over (20%) and Fine Gael (19%) . Things are changing very quickly in Ireland.
