A woman, likely new president of Mexico, according to a survey

Thirteen months after the holding of the presidential elections in Mexico, the name of a possible winner is already taking shape, who would take the reins of the country from 2024. If the mathematics of the polls and logic prevail, Claudia Sheinbaum, The current Head of Government of Mexico City, could be the one chosen to succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and give him continuity in the so-called Fourth Transformation (4T) of the country, the set of policies that Obrador envisions for the future. In this way, Mexico would have a woman in the presidential chair for the first time.

The preferences of the Mexican electorate seem to be totally leaning to the left, and it is thanks to the polls, which allow outlining the strategies to follow for the voting on July 2 of next year. The overwhelming popularity of López Obrador means that his party, the Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena), has practically no competitors due to the little or no force of the opposition.

Covarrubias y Asociados, one of the polling companies with the most tradition and prestige in Mexico, has carried out a survey to which La Vanguardia has had access, where a scenario of next year’s electoral contest is presented. The survey was carried out between May 16 and 22, 2023 and the sample size was 1,500 people visited in person.

In the first place, it analyzes the policy of the President of the Republic, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who obtains a 78% approval rating among the citizens, a historical figure compared to other previous presidencies.

Of that 78% of approval, 45% indicate that “the approval is a lot” for AMLO and the remaining 33% indicate that they “approve somewhat” of the president’s policy. Only 15% of those surveyed express their disapproval of the president’s management. In this context, the popularity of the Mexican president strengthens his party, Morena, which is facing the elections with the maximum guarantees.

Regarding the intention to vote, Covarrubias y Asociados has also asked about the party they would vote for for the presidency of the republic, which results in an overwhelming victory for Morena.

While the icing party obtained a 47% preference, its closest rival, the National Action Party (PAN), only got 12% and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) 10%. Much lower, and with little electoral expectations, is the Citizen Movement with 4% and at the end of the list are the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), the Green Party (PVEM) and the Labor Party (PT). , with 3% each.

The survey allows us to glimpse what the next elections will be like and who will face each other at the polls next year. Hence, the attention of the survey has also focused on the contenders who aspire to direct Morena.

So far, the applicants participating in the Morena primaries are: Claudia Sheinbaum, Head of Government of Mexico City; Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Foreign Relations; Adán Augusto López, Secretary of the Interior; Deputy Gerardo Fernández Noroña and Senator Ricardo Monreal.

Sheinbaum obtains 36% in the survey, while his closest competitor, Marcelo Ebrard, registers a voting intention of 19%. It is a very wide distance between both candidates and possibly irreversible. Behind in voting intentions are Fernández Noroña with 17%, Ricardo Monreal with 7% and finally Adán Augusto López with 6%.

The result reveals that the popularity of Claudia Sheinbaum is on the rise over the months. In the survey carried out by this same consultancy in April, the official surpassed Ebrard by 10 points, but this month the gap has widened to 17 points, with which the chancellor’s hopes are evaporating.

Although Morena’s power seems absolute, the only chance the opposition parties could have is to form an alliance by 2024. Covarrubias has also probed how much a candidate emerging from the alliance between the PAN, the PRI and the PRD could obtain, where there is no clear preference for an opposition character who can compete with guarantees for the presidency of Mexico.

In the poll results, PRI senator Beatriz Paredes and PRD senator Miguel Ángel Mancera appear tied for first place, both with a 15% voting preference. Below is the PAN senator, Lilly Téllez, with 12% and the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Santiago Creel, with 10%.

What is interesting in this opposition poll is that the highest percentage (43%) is recorded by people who did not vote for any of the above or did not know who to choose.