With the posters of the candidates for the Presidency of the Generalitat and many town halls still hanging on the lampposts and stamped on canopies and walls of towns and cities, it is now possible to request a vote by mail for the next electoral contest: the general elections of 23 of July.
After a campaign raised as a plebiscite on the figure of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, everything indicates that the wave of change that has put an end to the Botà nic era will sweep the polls in the form of a tsunami on the next 23-J. However, general elections have their particularities and the electoral system and the reconfiguration of spaces -Ciudadanos does not appear and Sumar yes- can influence, and a lot, the final result.
With the data still fresh, a simulation of the scenario that could be reproduced in July can be made; yes, with many nuances. It should be said that in 2019, there were barely differences of 30,000 votes between what the PSPV and the PP obtained in the local and general elections, respectively. For this reason, it seems more convenient to transfer the results of the municipal elections on Sunday to the general elections than with those of the regional ones.
In this way, with the figures from the local elections, the PP would be the force with the most votes in the general elections with 15 of the 33 seats at stake in the Valencian Community. For its part, Vox would keep 2. The block on the right would add 17 while the left would have 16 deputies; the 12 from the PSPV and the four from CompromÃs. With this simple translation, it could be said that the right would win the generals by a tight margin.
However, in the case of secondary parties, some important clarifications must be made. It is evident that CompromÃs does not come close in a scenario of generals to the vote of the municipal ones. In 2019 he achieved 15% in the locals and in the generals he stayed at 6.5%. It is for this reason that everything suggests that the vote of the left can be rearranged in favor of other left-wing parties with a state character such as the PSOE or Unides Podem (this second scenario deserves a further explanation).
What does seem is that the PSOE can (and that is where Pedro Sánchez’s strategy is directed) bring together part of that electorate that does not vote for the Valencianists in Congress with the call for the useful vote.
In the case of the right, this reorganization of the vote also generates doubts. The absence of Ciudadanos does not affect too much, since it achieved less than 50,000 votes in the local 28-M. The big question is whether the PP will be able to capitalize on the support of the conservative electorate with this call for a useful vote to “repeal sanchismoâ€.
In the municipal and regional elections, it did succeed, but it is no less true that Vox grows on the general stage. In fact, in the last ones that were held in the Valencian Community, it became the third political force with 18.60% and seven deputies (the PP got 8 due to the presence of a strong competitor). In this sense, it seems difficult to make this magnificent result of the ultra-right compatible with a greater growth of the PP.
Thus, the scenario can turn around with the appearance of Sumar. If the platform led by Yolanda DÃaz does its homework and manages to reach agreements with CompromÃs and Podem (the EU has already given it its support), the political space to the left of the PSPV would be much more competitive.
Carrying out an exercise in fictional politics with the real data of the municipal ones, the sum of CompromÃs, Unides Podem and Esquerra Unida would reach 417,812 votes which, if each one were transferred to their constituency, would leave the new platform at 7 deputies (four for Valencia , two for Alicante and one for Castellón). Although it is true that it is not the same scenario as in the general elections of 2015 and 2016 (with Podemos at its best), the truth is that the union of forces from space reached 9 parliamentarians.
The PSPV would be left with 11 (one less than in the previous translation) and the left would add 18 seats to 15 for the right. Vox would keep both and the PP would be the force with the most votes with 13.
Thus, the irruption of Sumar (always calculating the distribution of seats with the results of the municipal elections) would take two seats from the PP and one from the PSOE, while giving a majority to the Valencian left.
Perhaps this is the scenario that Pedro Sánchez is looking for, although he must be reminded that in politics two and two do not always add up to four and the encouragement of one and the other after the overwhelming victory of the PP could be very decisive in the elections next month July.
