Sánchez entrusts his re-election to the increase in votes recorded in the general elections

Three million more ballots at the polls, in the general elections of next July 23, compared to the municipal elections of May 28. This is the magical number of extra votes that the high command of the PSOE clings to in order to try to stop the blue wave that Alberto Núñez Feijóo is surfing to reach Moncloa, and to be able to achieve, instead, the re-election of Pedro Sanchez

A la Moncloa and Ferraz warn that traditionally in Spain general elections have more participation than municipal elections, precisely around three million votes. “It is a very important granary”, indicate the socialists. “Without a doubt, there can be a big one here”, they underline.

And they consider that they now have a “new opportunity” to mobilize the progressive electorate and reverse the victory of the PP in the municipal elections, which they emphasize was barely more than three percentage points of the total count. On Sunday, the PP reached 31.5% of the total vote in the local elections and the PSOE remained at 28.1%. The 763,000 votes with which the populars advanced the socialists is not an insurmountable difference, they assure Ferraz, if more participation is also registered on 23-J.

The paradigmatic example they present to the PSOE is that of the years 2007 and 2008. In the 2007 municipal elections, there were 22.2 million valid votes, with a participation of 63.2%. In the 2008 general elections, 25.7 million votes were cast, and a turnout of 73.8%. In other words, there were more than three million more votes between the two polls.

In addition, the PSOE is particularly focused on those elections because the PP won the municipal elections in 2007, with 7.9 million votes compared to the 7.7 million ballots cast by the Socialists. But in the general elections immediately following in 2008, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero won re-election with a record 11.2 million votes, while Mariano Rajoy remained in opposition after securing 10.2 million ballots. .

In any case, they assure that the game is not lost in advance. “There is a party”, they insist again, despite the tremendous moral blow suffered on Sunday, when most of the PSOE’s territorial power was lost.

Although nothing will be simple, on the contrary. On the one hand, the fact that the date of the general elections is in the middle of summer can have a demobilizing effect that has an impact on electoral participation.

In addition, some leaders warn that if on 28-M there was a vote to punish Sánchez, with more reason it could take place next 23-J, when he himself is already the candidate. It is a very serious risk, they warn. And they believe that it will be difficult for the voters’ perception to change much in just two months, since the municipal elections effectively became a first round of the general elections.

Even so, there are a majority in the PSOE who admit that advancing the generals was the least bad of all the possible options. It could be that on 23-J the PP and Vox did not add an absolute majority, which they think could have been inevitable if the general elections had been delayed, as planned, until December.