The general elections that are going to take place in Spain on July 23 are going to be transcendental for European politics. The decision adopted by Spanish citizens can be decisive in the struggle for positions that takes place in the European Union, both at the political and ideological level, as well as in that of national alliances within the complex community mechanisms.
A conservative wave has swept Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine, and Spain could be the next country with a government conditioned by an extreme right that is not very enthusiastic about European federalism.
Santiago Abascal’s first public gesture after local elections that have given Vox the key to six autonomous communities (Valencian Community, Murcia, Extremadura, Aragón, the Balearic Islands and Cantabria) has been a lightning trip to Budapest to meet with the Prime Minister Hungarian VÃktor Orban, a reference figure of the illiberal movements in Europe and a contact bridge between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
The European political evolution now passes through Spain. There is some restlessness in Paris. There are worried looks in Berlin. There is everything in Brussels. An attentive smile is perceived in Rome. Laughter is heard in Budapest. A distant curiosity is intuited in Warsaw, since in October legislative elections are going to take place in Poland, also transcendental.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. After that date, the Social Democrats have only won elections in one European country: Denmark. (It would also be necessary to consign the victory of the labor party Joseph Muscat in the small island of Malta).
The first parliamentary elections after the start of the war took place in Hungary and were a military parade for Orban, who overwhelmed a single opposition candidacy. Conversely, also in April, the liberal Europeanist Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen, accused in the middle of the campaign of receiving financing from Moscow. In June of last year, legislative elections were held in France and the National Front showed that it is not dead. The movement founded by Macron lost the absolute majority in the National Assembly, opening a big question mark, since the president of the French Republic cannot aspire to a third term.
In September 2022, votes were made in Sweden and Italy with excellent results for extreme right-wing formations of the Atlantic faith, formally distanced from the magnetism that the Russian regime exerts on certain families of European right-wing.
In Sweden, the party with the most votes was the Social Democrats, but the conservatives affiliated with the European People’s Party (EPP) and the extreme right had a majority in Parliament. The former govern with the external support of the latter. In Italy, with the national unity government chaired by the technocrat Mario Draghi broken, the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party won the most votes. Giorgia Meloni, the day before yesterday with occasional sympathies for Putin, today a staunchly Atlanticist, presides over the council of ministers in coalition with the declining party of Silvio Berlusconi and the diminished League of Matteo Salvini. Berlusconi is a personal friend of Putin. Salvini, a devoted admirer.
In October 2022, a vote was taken in the Bulgarian hornet’s nest without giving rise to a stable government. The tension between pro-Europeans and pro-Russians helps to understand the thick Bulgarian picture. Frightened by Russian warmongering, Finland voted in March this year and carried away the Social Democratic Prime Minister Sanna Marin, a prominent Instagram celebrity, surpassed by traditional conservatives and the extreme right, who will govern the country in coalition. Greece has just voted and has opted for the re-election of the conservative prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has just forced a second election at the end of June to obtain the majority prize offered by the change in electoral law. He will have an absolute majority.
Every time a vote is taken in a Union country, Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party, uncorks a bottle of champagne. After fortifying itself in eastern Europe and advancing through Scandinavia, the conservative wave is now expanding to the south.
Little by little the strategy of a great alliance of the EPP with the Atlanticist extreme right (European Conservatives) is taking shape after the elections to the European Parliament scheduled for June 2024, with the aim of moving the axis of the community institutions. The EPP-Conservative bloc could attract Macron – to avoid isolating France – leaving the Social Democrats and Greens out of the game, with the consequent isolation of the current German federal government. Right now the German extreme right is tied in the polls with the SPD, disputing it for second place. Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election chances as president of the European Commission have entered a downward parabola.
The key piece for linking the EPP with the hard conservatives would be Meloni, who is currently following Spanish political developments with great interest. This week, the Italian premier has recalled her friendship with Vox. The Italia system has a significant presence in strategic Spanish areas such as energy and the media (press and private television).
What is important is not the incidence of the July elections in the European semester. What is important is the impact of these elections on a European policy in a phase of change.
