It is difficult to appreciate the iceberg that lies beneath all the products and services one can buy. Thus, in order for the plugs to work, there are high and low voltage networks throughout the country; people trained in universities; regulation; planning; very Tesla (the real one, not the car); Fourier transforms and giant measurement and billing systems. There are also complex logistics and supplies supporting hospitals, factories, hotels and hair removal centers. Supply is the photosynthesis that nourishes products and services and explains, in part, why some countries with sun and beaches attract tourists and others do not, or why some produce machinery, cars or startups and others do not.
The more technologically advanced and large a sector is, the more complex the system that supports it is, it is logical, an amoeba is not the same as a bear. In the world of defense, supply is also decisive, so much so that there is an old military saying that points out: “The young discuss strategy, the professionals, logistics”. It has always been this way: in the pre-modern age, provisioning determined the size of armies, the nature of campaigns and the objectives to be conquered. Armies could only carry a month and a half of supplies, as the carriers also consumed what they carried. Because of this, armies looted supplies when operating in enemy territory. The more professional an army was, the more efficient it was at raiding flour, grinding it and making bread. It was supply, and not population or wealth, that limited Roman and medieval armies.
Technology also affects provisioning: the Mongols had raiding parties in which each soldier was accompanied by several horses, including lactating mares, which ate grass and fed the soldier with their blood and milk. Sailing ships also allowed for very efficient provisioning. The train made it possible to transport supplies in a massive way without consuming them, which is why colossal armies arose in the First World War. In Ukraine, American production, supply and logistics will largely determine the expected counteroffensive.
Today defense technology platforms are the most complex technology systems on the planet, you just have to look at the cost of development and maintenance they have; so are their supply ecosystems, the Russians are unfortunately finding out.
Thus, when Europe proclaims that it must have autonomy in security, it announces that it must further develop the ecosystem of companies, professionals, regulation, incentives and technology associated with defense. Achieving it will be long and difficult, but not forever. It will also be difficult to assess progress towards achieving this, since, just like cooking rice, we will only know if it has turned out well at the end.
So, it will be necessary to manage all this with diligence, professionalism and neatly monitoring the progress. We will also have to provide ourselves with large reserves of supplies, since in a crisis these will determine our ability to face it. Let’s do it; if not, there is the possibility that in the future we will pay a heavy price and that, because of this, our grandchildren will describe us as inept and irresponsible. If that were to happen, they would do so rightfully so. To pretend otherwise would be like hoping that Pontius Pilate can be remembered as a good provincial administrator of the Roman Empire.
