The triple humiliation that Taiwan inflicts on Beijing

At the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Xi Jinping stated: “The resolution of the Taiwan question and the realization of the complete reunification of the motherland are an unalterable historical task of the Party, a desire shared by all the sons of the Chinese nation and an inescapable requirement for the culmination of the great revitalization of the Chinese nation.

Taiwan is the thorn in China’s foot. It is that territory that has never been fully incorporated into the national body. It did not fall under the Qing Administration until 1683. Since then, it was a frontier territory, always threatened by the Spanish, Dutch, British and Japanese. The latter ended the first period of Chinese sovereignty in 1895, after the first Sino-Japanese war. In 1945, Taiwan rejoined a China that was plunged into civil war. Chiang Kai Chek took notice of the island. The Japanese had handed it over free of any communist cells. He reinforced the repression and sent sensitive elements of the Republic of China (DRC) there. This operation ended in 1949 with the transfer of almost three million people, all the gold reserves, foreign currency and all the artistic treasures that it could, but also, all the navy and war aircraft.

Chiang Kai Chek withdrew the DRC to Formosa, initially without US support. But, at that time, the Popular Liberation Army (ELP) did not have the capacity to cross the Strait and confront the generalissimo’s troops. Immediately, the Korean War (1950-1953) consolidated American protection over Taiwan. At the end of this, Mao Zedong, faced with the evidence that he could not allow this situation to consolidate, launched the attack. It is what is known as the first crisis of the Strait (1954-1955). The bombardments of the islands of Kinmen and Matsu, close to the mainland, ended with the signing of the Mutual Security Treaty between the US and Taiwan (December 1954) and talks began in Geneva. After four unsuccessful years, in 1958 the People’s Republic of China (PRC) resumed the attack. But Taiwanese air and naval superiority became apparent. The conflict was frozen with sporadic bombings until 1979. But China, with its position of strength, managed to prevent the existence, like Germany or Korea, of two Chinas or of one China and one Taiwan.

Then, at the dawn of the 1970s, one of those unpredictable geostrategic turns will take place: Mao’s China and the imperialist US will become allies.

The US was mired in Vietnam, a bottomless pit of money, lives and morale. China, after the great leap forward and the cultural revolution, was ruined, isolated and faced with the USSR. For its part, the US needed an ally that would allow it to get out of Vietnam and continue to contain the Soviets in Asia. China, investments to revive its economy and technology that would provide a deterrent capacity for its nuclear weapon. Both had a common enemy – the USSR.

Those are the circumstances that give rise to ping-pong diplomacy and the hope of achieving peaceful reunification. It will take nearly a decade to consolidate this new friendship: Kissinger met Zhou Enlai in July 1971; in October, the PRC is recognized by the UN and the Security Council as the representative of the Chinese nation; in February 1972, Nixon visits China, making the alliance public. On the day it leaves China, February 28, the 1st joint communiqué of the PRC and the US is issued, known as the Shanghai Communiqué, whose essence is the recognition of the principle of “one China”, that is, “ there is only one China, the Government of Beijing is its legitimate representative and Taiwan is part of China”. This alliance, based on this concept, is ratified in the 2nd joint communiqué or joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations, on January 1, 1979. And it will have its ratification in the 3rd communiqué, on August 17 (1982). .

On these grounds and hopes, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress issued the Message to Taiwan Compatriots on January 1, 1979, and on September 30, 1981, Ye Jianying, Chairman of the Standing Committee, proposed the Nine principles for peaceful reunification. Both are the path that leads us to the proposal, by Deng Xiaoping, of the formula “One country, two systems”, designed for Taiwan, but applied in Hong Kong and Macao. With this idea, the CCP offers the Chinese territories that have been left out of the PRC the possibility of rejoining the homeland while respecting its political, economic, judicial and even foreign relations models in commercial matters. In the case of Taiwan, the possibility of maintaining its own army is also assured.

However, time would bring great disappointment to China. The US was not willing to give up Taiwan. The basic principle of “one China” has been consciously undermined by the US side. It is what the US calls “strategic ambiguity” and has two fundamental pillars: the Law on Relations with Taiwan” (LRT) and “the six guarantees”.

The LRT, approved on April 10, but with force, retroactive, from January 1, 1979, is the instrument that the US and Taiwan enabled the same day that they closed their embassies to maintain “officially substantial” relations but not diplomatic efforts through the creation of a non-profit corporation: the American Institute of Taiwan.

In 1982, at the height of the Cold War, Ronald Reagan consolidated his alliance with People’s China with the aforementioned August 17 communiqué. In it, the PRC demanded that the US reduce its arms sales to the DRC. The US relented, but then offered Taiwan “the six guarantees” which, in essence, assure Taiwan that the US position on Taiwan’s sovereignty status has not changed, that it will not try to mediate between the DRC and the PRC and that it will continue to supply it with arms regardless of Beijing’s opinion.

At the beginning of the nineties the world changed. In 1991, through constitutional reforms and at the hands of President Lee Teng Hui, Taiwan became a democracy, recognized the PRC Government over the continent and affirmed that the DRC only exercises its administration over the “Taiwan area”. These last decisions generated a détente that led to the 1992 Consensus, promoted by Jiang Zemin, which affirms that there is only “one China” but it is possible to disagree on whether the only China “is the one represented by the PRC or by the DRC”. It is what the Kuomintang (KMT) in Taiwan calls: “a China with its respective interpretations.”

However, from that moment on, President Lee (still in the KMT) evolves towards independence, which will end up causing the third crisis of the Straits (1995-1996). For the PRC, Lee was walking towards the declaration of independence or, at least, towards the consolidation of Taiwan as a de facto sovereign state. Faced with the prospect of his re-election, the PLA mobilized in the Strait with an aggressive attitude. Facing him, the US carried out the largest naval deployment in Asia in its history.

It was useless, Lee won with an absolute majority and his government was followed by that of another independentist, Chen Shui Bian. Failed the postures of strength, from 2000, the PRC began to soften its position of “one China” identified with the PRC. This change was made clear in the Anti-Secession Law passed by Hu Jintao in March 2005. This law establishes that there is “one China” with indivisible sovereignty, but it does not explicitly identify it with the PRC, rather it speaks of the “State shall use non-peaceful means” in case the pro-Taiwan independence forces, under whatever name and method, achieve the separation of Taiwan from China; if a major event occurs leading to the separation of Taiwan from China or if any chance of peaceful unification is lost.

Taiwan also sought to de-escalate tensions and allowed KMT leaders to travel to the mainland. In the 2008 elections, its candidate, Ma Ying Jeou, won and, with it, the golden age of “cross-strait relations” and the 1992 Consensus began. However, in 2016, the independence movement won again, and with the new president, Tsai Ingwen, a great deterioration of these relations has been taking place, in parallel to the consolidation of a new charismatic leadership on the continent: Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping has introduced the Taiwan issue into his “nation rejuvenation” strategy, on the basic premise of “one country, two systems.” In January 2019, to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the publication of the Message to Compatriots in Taiwan, he proposed to Taipei: work together to promote China’s rejuvenation; look for a “two systems” solution; respect the principle of “one China”; further integration of cross-strait development; and the consolidation of the bases for peaceful reunification.

However, we are facing a new time. A cold war looms on the horizon that has its main stage in the South China Sea, where Taiwan, far from being the pawn that Chinese sources say, is a bishop in the hands of the Americans. On August 2, 2022, against the background of international tension unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan. This was interpreted by China as a clear provocation that joins the threat, ottovoce, that Washington could change its policy of strategic ambiguity that assumes the principle of “one China”, for another one of greater clarity, towards the recognition of Taiwan . The Chinese response was a gigantic PLA deployment with maneuvers of the best of its navy and air force against Taiwan, a situation that we could almost consider a fourth Straits crisis.

The PRC is convinced, and this is stated in its latest white paper on Taiwan, that after the messages of “freedom, democracy and human rights” or “defense of the international order based on rules”, what the US treats to do is to deny their legitimacy in order to safeguard their national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The American objective, according to China, is to use Taiwan to contain China and obstruct reunification. To do this, the US counts on the collaboration of the island’s independence forces that constantly press for “desinization” and promote “incremental independence.”

Xi Jinping considers “foreign interference” and the independence movement as “two hostile forces” against which he stated at the aforementioned XX Congress: “Taiwan belongs to China. The resolution of your question is the Chinese’s own business, and it should be decided by the Chinese. We will persist in working with utmost sincerity and best efforts for the prospect of peaceful reunification, but we will never agree to renounce the use of armed force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures, which is not directed in any way. against the many Taiwanese compatriots, but against the interference of external forces, as well as against a tiny minority of secessionists who are supporters of Taiwan independence and against their secessionist activities.

It is therefore clear that China will not tolerate any attempt to divide the country. But her policy towards the Taiwanese can’t just be about sticks, she also needs carrots. And in this field, of peaceful attraction, the current continental leadership guarantees the population of Taiwan that once reunification takes place, under the “one country, two systems” model, they will have infinite opportunities for social and economic development thanks to its complementarity with the continent and the wide market that it offers. The social system, religious beliefs, private property and economic interests of third countries, as well as Taiwan’s foreign trade and cultural relations will also be respected. Finally, the government of the region will be in the hands of the Taiwanese themselves.

“The truth in the facts”, according to Deng Xiaoping, and what Xi said, for the moment, are only promises and goodwill. But for decades we will not be able to know if behind them there is sincerity or just siren songs. Well, as we previously pointed out, the world is suffering a new cold war in which the iron curtain is in the South China Sea, and Berlin, today, is called Taiwan.

Raúl Ramírez Ruiz is Professor of Contemporary History, Rey Juan Carlos University. Author of ‘History of Contemporary China. From the opium wars to the present day.