The armed rebellion led by the Wagner mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has posed the biggest challenge against Russian President Vladimir Putin in the more than 23 years he has been in power and tests the unity of the high command of his Army.
The uprising – in fact, a war within a war – occurred at the worst moment for the Russian Armed Forces, who are facing a counteroffensive by kyiv troops in Ukraine. However, finally the private army has decided to back down to avoid “a bloodbath.”
The head of the mercenaries, with good relations with members of the generalate, burned all the bridges with the Kremlin on Saturday morning by rejecting Putin’s demands for surrender, and announced a “peaceful march” of his units towards Moscow.
Although the exact number of mercenaries that are part of the Wagners is unknown, their strength is estimated at more than 25,000, according to different estimates.
Although Putin faced various terrorist attacks, including in Moscow, during the second war in Chechnya (1999-2009), he had never before seen himself in the position of an insurrection by forces fighting at his command.
In the opinion of British military intelligence, Russia was facing the “most significant challenge” in recent times and the “loyalty” of its security forces will be “key” to the outcome of the crisis. “Over the next few hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially those of the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis will unfold,” the Defense Ministry tweeted.
In a confirmation of the seriousness of the situation, the Russian president did not hesitate to compare the Wagner rebellion with the mass desertions of Russian soldiers on the fronts of the First World War that led to the Bolshevik revolution of 1917 and the decomposition of Russia.
“We will not allow it to happen again. We will defend our people and our state from any threat, including internal betrayal,” the Kremlin chief said in a message to the nation in which he warned that he would harshly punish the mutiny.
In practice, the leader of the Wagners has made part of the rhetoric of the Bolshevik agitators in the Russian Army during the First World War his own by stating that he and his men do not want “the country to continue to live mired in corruption, lies and bureaucracy”.
The unknown now is whether the Russian president will resort to his Army to crush the Wagnerites, who took control of the city of Rostov, capital of the homonymous region, and began the road to Moscow.
Hours earlier, the leader of the Russian republic of Chechnya, Ramzán Kadírov, had announced the sending of units to “the zone of tensions” and assured that they “will do everything to preserve the unity of Russia and defend the State.” Unlike Kadyrov, the Russian Defense Ministry has taken a more cautious tone, calling on the Wagnerites to return to their barracks and giving security guarantees to those who do.
Unsurprisingly, the Wagner rebellion was interpreted in the Ukraine as a sign of Russian weakness. “Russia’s weakness is obvious,” Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky said, commenting on the mercenaries’ uprising.
The mere fact that the start of an armed rebellion has been allowed is a heavy blow for Putin, they in turn indicated to the independent portal Meduza and sources close to the Kremlin.
