Russia, and especially its capital, Moscow, breathed a sigh of relief yesterday Sunday. The Wagner Group’s paramilitary forces were gradually withdrawing after their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accepted a deal with the Kremlin to end their rebellion on the eve. The country, however, also remains in uncertainty. The Kremlin has not agreed to changes in the military leadership, but it is still too early to tell what the consequences of a 24-hour mutiny could have, or how it will affect the campaign in Ukraine.
To try to answer this question, yesterday the Kremlin broadcast an interview with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in which he assures that the military campaign against Ukraine is his “highest priority”, to which he dedicates time from the time he gets up in the morning until he goes back to bed. “We are in a position to comply with all the plans and tasks that we have proposed”, he said.
The problem is that the conversation was recorded on Wednesday, two days before the rebellion broke out, Prigozhin, his former ally, took control of Rostov-on-Don and columns of military vehicles with his men marched towards Moscow with the intention of arresting the Minister of Defense, Serguei Xoigú, a close friend of the president.
In addition, he wanted to oust the incompetent and corrupt commanders whom he blamed for the setbacks in Ukraine. In an urgent message to the nation, Vladimir Putin ordered them to stop and described the uprising as “treason”.
Prigozhin did not heed any calls, so the consequence seemed obvious to everyone: a clash between the Russian Army and one of the most prepared units in the country, a private company of military professionals who have excelled at the front Ukraine, especially in Bakhmut, the longest and bloodiest battle of the current conflict.
If the clash took place in a city, Moscow and Rostov-on-Don the most likely, it seemed impossible to avoid damage to the civilian population. Many Muscovites remember an episode they did not want to repeat again, the constitutional crisis of September and October 1993, which pitted then-President Boris Yeltsin against Parliament. Officially there were 150 dead, although other counts put it at several hundred more.
Before these fears turned into a nightmare, with the mercenaries 200 kilometers from Moscow, the crisis subsided after a deal was reached on Saturday night with the mediation of the president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko. Wagner’s boss then halted the march of his men on Moscow and they made a U-turn. Yesterday they returned to the barracks from where they had left.
Yesterday Sunday, the situation gradually calmed down in the Russian capital. Traffic restrictions on the highways that had been taken over by the rebels were lifted and the security presence on the streets was relaxed. Despite this, the regime of counter-terrorist operation was maintained. The mayor, Serguei Sobianin, left Monday as a non-working day, as he announced when the crisis broke out.
Calm also came, according to Ria Nóvosti, in the city of Rostov-on-Don, after the “Wagnerites” left it in the morning from Saturday to Sunday, some to applause.
The mercenaries had taken it under their control on Saturday morning. From there they started that day the “march for justice”, as their boss called it, in the direction of Moscow. Prigozhin had accused senior military leaders of bombing his men’s barracks. The Ministry of Defense denied it and said it was a “provocation”.
According to the pact agreed on Saturday night, Prigozhin himself must go into exile in Belarus. He has the “personal guarantee” of President Putin, Kremlin spokesman Dimitr Peskov said on Saturday. In return, Russia will not prosecute him for armed rebellion, a crime punishable by up to 20 years in prison.
Fighters of the Wagner Group who did not take part in the actions on Friday and Saturday will be able to sign a contract to join the armed forces. A criminal case will not be opened against those who did take part, in consideration of their services.
Putin’s absence from the public mirror, except for this interview out of place in time, fueled doubts yesterday about the weight of his authority after what happened this weekend. “The regime was weakened”, wrote the former opposition tycoon Mikhaïl Khodorkovsky in Telegram. The one-time richest man in Russia until his conviction and exile in London stated that “more situations like this will arise”.
However, the state media assured yesterday that Putin maintained his usual activity. According to the Belarusian news agency Belta, he had two phone conversations with Lukashenko. Russian public television reported that he will participate in this week’s Russian Security Council, as he usually does.
There are also doubts about the future of the Wagner Group or that of its leader, who yesterday was away from Telegram, his main means of expression. The possibility that the mercenaries will no longer participate as an assault force in Ukraine generated excitement among the authorities in Kyiv.
Oleksí Danilov, secretary of the Security Council in Kyiv, spoke on Twitter of a “destabilization process” and dared to predict the beginning of the “dismantling of the system”. Mikhaïl Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke of a “humiliation” for the Kremlin.
But these enthusiastic interpretations are not currently reflected in hostilities against Ukraine. Kyiv’s military administration said 20 missiles were fired at the Ukrainian capital on Saturday. The City Council of the capital continued to give death figures, reports the Efe agency. Three on Saturday among the rubble of a 25-storey building and two in a block of flats in the Solomianski district.
In fact, with the end of the emergency due to the Wagner mutiny, the Russian military is thinking about Ukraine again. Chechen soldiers from the Ajmat unit sent to Rostov-on-Don on Saturday to quell the rebellion returned to the Ukrainian front yesterday, the commander said.
