Just 65 days before the elections for the presidency of Mexico are held, the advantage of more than 50 points that Claudia Sheinbaum has over Xóchitl Gálvez seems immovable, so everything suggests that the candidate of the National Regeneration Movement party (Morena), is very close to being the first female president of the nation.
On June 2, millions of Mexicans will go to the polls to choose the candidate who will take the reins of their country and succeed the current president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
In the presidential elections, three candidates face each other, on the one hand Claudia Sheinbaum, from the Let’s Keep Making History alliance, made up of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), Labor Party (PT) and the Mexican Green Ecologist Party (PVEM) parties.
The opposition coalition is headed by Xóchitl Gálvez, of the Strength and Heart Coalition for Mexico, made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
Jorge also participates in the contest
Álvarez Máynez, the only male candidate, representing the Citizen Movement.
In view of these polls, Sheinbaum has all the numbers to occupy the presidential chair in the National Palace. This would maintain the hegemony of the left in Mexico and also the continuation of the so-called Fourth Transformation (4T) established by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, terminology that refers to the reform process initiated by the current president.
Within the universe of surveys carried out in Mexico, the one carried out by the house De las Heras Demotecnia stands out, one of the companies with the most tradition in the field of surveys and with 35 years of experience. The study to which La Vanguardia had access puts Sheinbaum at the top of the preferences.
The survey published by De las Heras Demotecnia was carried out between March 14 and 17, 2024, through 1,400 door-to-door interviews.
In an interview with La Vanguardia, Rodrigo Galván de Las Heras, from the polling company, pointed out that since August 2023, the preferences of Mexican citizens have remained practically stable, giving their preferences to the Morena standard bearer.
An important point of the survey carried out by De las Heras is that as it is a door-to-door survey, it grants it representative validity over other surveys that are carried out by telephone or digitally, methods in which the results can be be more volatile.
It is precisely the confidence that this method gives that reveals that the voting intention of the Mexican electorate has moved very little over the last few months.
In the section of the survey where knowledge of the character is asked, Sheinbaum had an increase of 4% compared to last month, which brings it up to 84%.
For his part, Gálvez reaches 75% and Jorge Álvarez has risen to a significant 30% of knowledge compared to 16% last month.
Regarding the opinion of those surveyed about the candidates (which ranges from very good, good, neither good nor bad, bad, very bad and don’t know), the Morena candidate obtained 74% positive opinions against 11 % negative. For her part, the candidate of the PRI, PAN and PRD, during the survey reached 34% positive opinions, against 45% negative opinions, and finally the standard bearer of Movimiento Ciudadano registered 31% positive opinions against 33% of negative.
In the survey, the question was asked about the intention of the vote, where the question was asked about “if this Sunday there were elections for president of the Republic, which party or candidate would you vote for?” Claudia Sheinbaum obtained 63% of the votes. preferences of the respondents, while Gálvez was left with 15% and, further down, Álvarez Máynez with 2%. The figures are almost identical to last month, so the trend continues.
When asked which party or candidate do you think would be worse for you and your family, which one is the least convenient for you to win the next elections?, the National Action Party once again heads the list with a 28% rejection rate. , followed by the Institutional Revolutionary with 21% and the Citizen Movement with 18%, while Morena presents only 9% rejection.
Those surveyed by De las Heras once again showed their approval of President López Obrador, which has remained constant throughout the six-year term. In March 2024, López Obrador still rose 2 points and obtained 79 percent approval from those surveyed, which indicates that at least 8 out of 10 Mexicans are satisfied with the management of the current president.
The last point analyzed by De las Heras Demotecnia is a more likely electoral scenario if the election were held at this time. Taking into account a participation of 50% of the electoral roll, Claudia Sheinbaum’s advantage remains almost the same as last month.
With an estimate of 32 million voters, Sheinbaum would reach 66% of the vote, while Xóchitl Gálvez would have 31% of the vote by obtaining 15 million votes. Much lower, Jorge Álvarez Máynez would obtain only 3% of the votes.
