The Ministry of Defense is following with concern the possible repercussions that the Wagner mutiny in Russia may have in the Sahel, with countries where Spanish troops are deployed. This African transition zone between the Sahara desert to the north and the fertile savannahs to the south has become a nest of terrorism in which an amalgamation of international organizations fight bloodily for control. There, Wagner’s paramilitaries operate with agreements with governments to offer protection in exchange for being able to exploit valuable natural resources. But beyond its economic interests, the Russian group acts as a containment dam – through atrocities – in the face of the jihadist advance, one of the serious threats to Spanish national security.
One of the unknowns at the moment, according to military sources, is the future of the Spanish forces in Africa. There are soldiers with the Spanish flag in Senegal who contribute to the air transport of soldiers and materials in the fight against the jihadist insurgency. In Somalia, under the umbrella of the European Union, training national forces to combat terrorism and piracy. In the Central African Republic, Spanish soldiers guide the reform of the armed forces of that country. And the most important, in Mali, where some 300 troops help the Malian army to improve its military capabilities.
The Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, has reiterated that Spain will act in accordance with the rest of its European allies, but the truth is that great powers such as Germany or France have withdrawn their troops. Military sources say that the Wagner mutiny will mark a turning point in the near future, since if the paramilitary group stops operating in the area, leaving the country “will be much closer.” And it is at this point where there is “fear” that what happened two years ago in Afghanistan could be revived, where allied troops left the country behind before the Taliban took Kabul, falling on deaf ears the years of progress in the country.
Wagner’s leader, Yevgueni Prigozhin, has assured that the group will be dismantled on July 1. However, Spanish military intelligence sources suspect that the mercenaries will remain in Africa. And if it is not under the umbrella of Wagner, other criminal organizations will “emerge” that dedicate themselves to plundering valuable natural resources, taking advantage of the instability in political and security matters. An expanding market.
If the scenario of Wagner’s disappearance is disturbing for the reasons outlined above, the alternative, in which the mercenaries continue to spread their tentacles, is just as worrying. Félix Arteaga, principal investigator of the Elcano Royal Institute, explains to La Vanguardia that the Russian disinformation campaigns launched in Africa have provoked local hatred towards European troops – with an air of suspicion of colonialism – which makes it “very difficult” for them to maintain their presence. in the Sahel zone.
This, in the eyes of the investigator, will probably lead to the suspension of foreign military activities, even if some testimonial troops remain. And what is the alternative? Arteaga’s thesis, which is supported by the rest of the military sources consulted, goes through the relief that European countries should give to Morocco or Algeria so that they assume a role of assistance and fight against terrorism. He argues that the European partners (including Spain) are gradually going to lose ground; they will retreat to the capitals and leave large areas of the Sahel in the hands of the insurgency.
“A serious risk because we can witness a phenomenon similar to what happened with the Islamic State at the time. Morocco and Algeria, instead of arming themselves to challenge each other militarily, must assume international support in the fight against terrorism. It would be easier because they are much more legitimized (than the Europeans)”, he explains. “It’s his backyard,” says Arteaga.
The possible contagion of this destabilization to northern Europe, which is not a likely scenario in the short term, is one of the great challenges that arise for national security. And that area is the Spanish (and European) “backyard”.
