The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) today presents its electoral macro-survey for the July 23 elections, based on almost 30,000 interviews and with a calculation of the distribution of seats.
The study has been carried out during the last twenty days of June, in which the Popular Party has reached government pacts with Vox in territories such as the Balearic Islands, the Valencian Community or Extremadura. The CIS will give a perception today of whether these pacts with the extreme right and other decisions such as the delivery of votes to Collboní in Barcelona have affected the intention to vote for the popular ones.
In the poll published today, the Popular Party hopes to reinforce its expectations of victory, while the PSOE aspires to continue leading the CIS and Sumar and Vox are fighting for third place.
In the last CIS, published on June 16, Pedro Sánchez maintained his leadership despite the approach of the Popular Party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, which was half a point behind the PSOE. Specifically, the CIS gave the Socialist Party an estimated vote of 31.2% in June, two points above the previous month, while the PP scored 30.7%, growing 3.5 points per above the May poll.
Third place went to Sumar, which in this survey already included Podemos and appeared with an estimated vote of 14.3%. Behind was Vox with a support of 10.6%, the same as in May and far from the 15% with which he achieved 52 deputies in 2019.
By blocks, the left was still ahead in the CIS Barometer for June, although the margin narrowed: PSOE and Sumar together reached 45.5%, while the sum of the PP and Vox reached 41.3%.
In the study that the CIS will launch today, it will be possible to observe the trend of the intention to vote of the different political parties and how their latest actions have influenced their electorate. While the Popular Party has reached multiple government agreements with Vox, Pedro Sánchez has conducted several interviews in the media. For his part, Sumar has proposed a universal heritage to young people and has not been able to avoid controversy in reference to some members of Podemos. Vox, which in the last poll was in fourth position, has entered several regional governments and aspires to be decisive in the formation of the next Government.
The 30,000 interviews that have been carried out for today’s study is one of the highest figures that the CIS has handled in its history, with a minimum sample of one thousand questionnaires per province, which allows adjusting the allocation of seats to Congress.
The Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) of the Generalitat de Catalunya will also announce today the results of the second barometer of political opinion for 2023, which includes an estimate of votes and seats for elections to Parliament and Congress.
The study was carried out after the last municipal elections in Catalonia on May 28, in which ERC became the third political force and lost mayoralties such as those of Tarragona and Lleida. For its part, Junts emerged strengthened by the victory of Xavier Trias in Barcelona and the general improvement in results compared to the last electoral contests. The PSC was undoubtedly the great winner of the elections, becoming the leading force in Catalonia and obtaining the mayoralty of Barcelona.
In the last CEO of April, the PSC consolidated its advantage and Junts recovered part of the lost ground after leaving the Government, giving ERC second place with 29-34 seats. The PP was positioned as the fourth force with between 8 and 12 seats and Vox maintained a range similar to its current deputies. The CUP and Podem were ranked fifth and sixth political forces respectively.
