Artificial intelligence (AI) brings a “revolution” in the economy that will affect “almost all” jobs and will force regulations to limit the effects that this technology will have on jobs. At the moment it is not noticeable due to its minority deployment, but it will.
This is the belief of the OECD, which has focused its 2023 employment report on AI and the labor market. According to this study, 27% of jobs in industrialized countries are at high risk of being automated, either with AI or other automation technologies such as ICT or robotics. Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic, with more weight in manufacturing and routine tasks, exceed 30%, the most exposed. Spain is above average, with 28%.
The agency sees differences between AI and other previous technological revolutions. For example, it goes beyond automating repetitive and routine tasks, as its predecessors did; being a general purpose technology “almost all sectors and occupations will be affected”; and the speed of its development is “unprecedented.” Its rapid progress, falling costs and increased availability of AI-skilled workers “indicates that OECD economies could be on the verge of an AI revolution.”
In previous revolutions, repetitive jobs lost out. The most typical image is that of factory workers being replaced by a machine… but AI has made great strides in ordering information, memorization, perceptual speed, or deductive reasoning. With the latest advances, skilled jobs are the most exposed, especially business professionals, managers, executives, science and engineering professionals, workers in the legal and cultural sectors… “The potential scope of automation extends considerably beyond of what had been possible”, it is affirmed. Those who have the least to worry about are cleaners, caretakers, laborers or fishermen.
Deployment is a game of pros and cons. It can reduce tedious and dangerous tasks, leading to greater worker involvement, a safer work environment “and even better mental health.” It also generates “more complex and interesting” tasks. But subtracting the simplest ones “leaves workers with a more intense, faster-paced work environment.” More stress: 75% of workers in finance and 77% in manufacturing using AI have seen an increase in their work pace.
It can also change the way in which work is monitored or supervised, which, although it can improve the sense of justice, puts privacy, autonomy and perpetuating biases at stake – biases when hiring or evaluating women, the disabled and ethnic or racial minorities. because he has learned them from humans. “Just as there are potential benefits, there are also significant risks, including employment,” acknowledges the OECD.
Bearing this in mind, governments are asked for a legislative framework that takes advantage of the benefits of AI while protecting the rights and well-being of the worker, safeguarding their data or against discrimination. It is also urged to act to train in the new skills that are required, adapting the educational system.
If one asks the workers the impact seems to be greater. 60% fear losing their job due to artificial intelligence in the next ten years, according to the report. For now the impact on employment is less, since the deployment is a minority and the work that is lost is being cushioned with voluntary departures or retirements. With AI still having “relatively low” adoption and technology advancing rapidly, “any negative employment effects may take time to materialize.”
In the case of Spain, 28% of jobs are at high risk of being automated, one point more than the OECD average. “They are usually the least qualified occupations and those occupied by younger workers,” the agency completes.
AI will likely have “a profound impact on the skills that will be needed in the labor market.” In this sense, the OECD applauds that SEPE finances programs to promote cognitive and transversal skills to develop and interact with AI systems.
