When asked if Vox is Pedro Sánchez’s best ally, the answer is yes for two reasons. One, by the law of a Belgian mathematician named Víctor D’Hondt and who governs the electoral system. The Vox votes that remain at the door of the seat in territories or provinces that are distributed with five or fewer deputies and that escape the PP will give the deputy to the PSOE or to the left-wing front of Yolanda Díaz. The same happens where nationalisms have stuck. For example, in Galicia, with the BNG, or in Catalonia, with ERC and Junts.
But there is another reason beyond the proportional distribution of seats for thinking that Vox may be helping Sánchez.
Look at the evolution of the polls until Monday’s debate, which we will see how it will influence because there is still a week left to vote. It seems clear that the effect of placing Vox in the center of the campaign gives wings to a comeback by Pedro Sánchez, difficult but not impossible. That explains many things: from the obsession of the socialist candidate with Vox – he cited Abascal’s party up to 35 times in the face to face – and also that these days Feijóo insists on calling the vote useful so that he can focus on his party.
Both strategies make sense when it comes to convincing the undecided voter, the decisive one. On the socialist flank, the idea of ??a return to a dark past, with a reduction in freedoms and rights, and of what the PSOE calls “shame pacts” between the two right-wing parties scares anyone with half a brain. On the PP side, capitalizing on the useful vote against “sanchismo” gains strength in the face of a blockade (ergo, electoral repetition) and the radicalism of the hardest right. We said before: the more Vox votes Feijóo collects, the more the PP adds and the more the left and nationalism decrease.
Let’s go to the million dollar question: Does Vox want Sánchez to win?
Modestly, whoever writes this thinks so. Vox’s priority is not to kick Sánchez out but to keep him in Moncloa but in the grip of his parliamentary dependencies. The opposite leaves Vox without a discourse and without a reason for being. Abascal does not want a strong Feijóo who would turn Vox into an unnecessary appendage, but rather a weak Sánchez with guardianship. Observe how Abascal gives reasons over and over again for his victimhood if you vote for the PSOE. Faced with a failure of the PP, Abascal could establish himself as the savior of the country. It has happened in Italy with Meloni and could happen in France with Le Pen.
Play to overcome the PP propping up a suffering Sánchez, only to lead Spain to the fight and the division. That’s what Vox does. A whole boomerang against the interests of its voters and one of the great deceptions in the history of Spanish politics.
