The Commercial Sector Confidence Index (ICSC) of Barcelona in 2023 increased compared to the previous year and reached a positive value (0.7 points) at the end of the year, thanks above all to a strong increase in the expectations generated, which offsets the regression of the current situation. This recovery of commercial confidence, which finally leaves behind the difficulties derived from the pandemic and the uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine and the deficit of some supplies, is the main conclusion reached by the Analysis department of the Office Municipal Dades of the Barcelona City Council in its latest report.
The evolution of this indicator, which measures the sentiment, optimistic or pessimistic, that the owners of commercial businesses have regarding their activity, both in the past and in the future. indicates that since the first half of 2020, when the covid pandemic broke out, forcing the closure of many establishments or the restriction of their activities, until the second half of 2023, the differential is close to 37 points. And this, despite the fact that in the first half of last year there was a drop of 5.7 points that was offset in the second half of 2023.
“After a turbulent period derived from the health, economic and social crisis linked to the pandemic, we find ourselves in a moment of certain commercial prosperity and, above all, of confidence in future prospects,” the company states in view of the report. Councilor for Commerce of Barcelona City Council, Raquel Gil.
“That local businesses show this optimism is a good indicator to guarantee the supply and the merchants’ willingness to maintain and update their businesses. The ICSC in 2023 is a good example of the muscle of the sector in the city,” adds the councilor.
The detailed analysis by branches of commercial activity reveals that most sectors present a positive confidence index value at the end of the analyzed period. In this sense, daily non-food trade stands out, with an increase of more than 10 points, the automotive sector (8.2) and leisure and culture (7.7). On the other hand, businesses dedicated to household products and personal equipment are the only ones that presented negative indices in 2023, especially the first, with a decline of 12.1 points.
Business sector confidence, along with consumer confidence, is an advanced indicator of consumption, a basic element of an economy’s aggregate demand. Hence its importance in the analysis of the economic situation. In the economy of a city, trade confidence is one of the most relevant sectoral approaches given the weight that this sector has in employment and in the local Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also the impact that the commercial offer has on the quality of urban space.
In Barcelona, ??the ICSC is calculated from the Commercial Activity Survey, every six months and from a significant sample of 1,200 businesses in each wave. Confidence indicators are always defined as an average between the retrospective evaluation of the business dynamics and the evaluation of the future of these dynamics.